Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T05:16:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
23 0x2343…6aad other 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 44d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$167 (+125%) realized +$167 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +231% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +199% what you keep after slip
Net edge+199%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%4W / 5L
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit22%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$99
7 days+$99
14 days+$104
30 days+$104
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 89% +$218
sports 7% −$9
crypto 5% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+199.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +419.5% +370.0% 100% 100% +111.0%
≤30d 6 +164.5% +139.3% 50% 50% +80.7%
≤90d 9 +230.6% +199.1% 44% 44% +128.9%
all 9 +230.6% +199.1% 44% 44% +128.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +199.1% 44% +128.9%
10% +170.5% 44% +107.0%
15% +144.3% 44% +87.0%
20% +120.4% 44% +68.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 74% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +153% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +231% · $-wt +153% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$61 vs −$8 · ×7.34 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.87 per $1 lost it wins $5.87
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$167
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses4 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)9 / 9
History coverage44d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit22%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 9 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $66 +$36 +54%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria? Jun 23 $8 +$63 +784%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -97%
Son Heungmin: 2+ Goals Jun 12 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $6 +$27 +437%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $13 −$12 -89%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 12 $9 −$9 -98%
Exact Score: FC Barcelona 2 - 0 Real Madrid CF? May 10 $9 +$119 +1288%
Exact Score: FC Barcelona 3 - 1 Real Madrid CF? May 10 $11 −$11 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $102 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $66 15h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria? SELL Yes 100¢ $71 24h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes 11¢ $8 26h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 9d
Son Heungmin: 2+ Goals BUY Yes 8¢ $4 12d
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? SELL Yes 99¢ $33 12d
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 South Africa? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 12d
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 18¢ $6 13d
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 12¢ $13 13d
Thunder vs. Lakers BUY Lakers 13¢ $9 43d
Exact Score: FC Barcelona 2 - 0 Real Madrid CF? SELL Yes 100¢ $128 44d
Exact Score: FC Barcelona 2 - 0 Real Madrid CF? BUY Yes 7¢ $9 44d
Exact Score: FC Barcelona 3 - 1 Real Madrid CF? BUY Yes 9¢ $11 44d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 14 history records