Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:19:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
23 0x2342…225c other 49 markets active 2h ago coverage 454d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate52%25W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% −$2
other 35% $0
politics 8% +$1
crypto 8% +$1
tech 3% $0
sports 1% $0
culture 0% $0
economics 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.5% -9.1% 50% 0% -10.5%
≤30d 13 -0.9% -10.4% 23% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 13 -0.9% -10.4% 23% 0% -10.1%
all 48 -0.8% -10.3% 52% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.9% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.7% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.9% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

454d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses25 / 23
Open positions1
Markets (closed)48 / 49
History coverage454d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $2 $0 +2%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 17 $37 $0 -1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 03 $75 +$1 +1%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 03 $8 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $34 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 01 $42 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $2 $0 -7%
Will Alberta join the US? May 30 $44 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $40 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 29 $41 −$3 -6%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $37 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 26 $43 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 26 $39 $0 -0%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? Jun 25 $20 $0 +2%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 30 $1 $0 +1%
Will 'Fight or Flight' gross between $0.9-1.2m opening weekend? May 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2600 in May? May 10 $11 +$1 +8%
Will Pedro Nuno Santos be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after th May 09 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? May 09 $11 $0 -1%
Will Elon tweet 325–349 times May 2–9? May 08 $11 $0 +1%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal majority? May 07 $9 $0 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 07 $2 $0 -5%
Will Bitcoin reach $125k in May? May 07 $21 $0 -0%
Will Fridolin Ambongo Besungu be the next pope? May 07 $11 $0 -1%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? May 06 $11 $0 +3%
Will Jose Tolentino de Mendonca be the next pope? May 05 $11 $0 +0%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 05 $13 $0 +0%
Will Na Kyung-won be the People's Power Party candidate for president? May 05 $11 $0 +2%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Apr 20 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Apr 18 $11 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in April? Apr 16 $11 $0 +1%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 15 $13 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk buy TikTok before July? Apr 14 $4 −$1 -15%
Will Trump pardon 1,000-1,249 Jan 6 protestors in his first 100 days? Apr 13 $14 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 180-189 times April 4 - 11? Apr 12 $12 +$1 +9%
TikTok sale announced before May? Apr 11 $12 $0 +0%
Will Jordan Spieth win The 2025 Masters? Apr 09 $12 $0 -1%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? Apr 08 $13 $0 +0%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 07 $3 $0 +0%
Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election? Apr 06 $8 $0 -1%
Will Susan Crawford win by 8-10%? Apr 06 $12 $0 +0%
Will 'Minecraft' gross between 100m and 110m on opening weekend? Apr 05 $12 $0 +1%
Will xAI have the top AI model on March 31? Mar 29 $12 $0 +1%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian presidential election? Mar 28 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the Western Conference? Mar 27 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? Mar 24 $8 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2025 China Grand Prix? Mar 22 $3 −$1 -38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $40 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $2 10h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $2 11h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $37 15h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 84¢ $2 18h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 84¢ $35 18h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $41 14d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 45¢ $41 14d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $8 15d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $8 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $34 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $34 16d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $1 16d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes $1 16d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes $0 16d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes $0 16d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $0 16d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 16d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 16d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 16d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $3 17d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $38 17d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $41 17d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $41 18d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $41 18d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 92¢ $40 19d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 92¢ $40 19d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 95¢ $37 19d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 98¢ $38 20d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $2 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.47 · official $40.47 (match) · 139 history records