Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:05:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
23 0x2342…eea7 crypto 27 markets active 4d ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$300 (-21%) realized −$300 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate37%10W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$52
14 days−$52
30 days−$336
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$321
other 4% −$17
world 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-31.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -19.1% -26.8% 40% 40% -14.2%
≤30d 27 -24.7% -31.8% 37% 37% -32.6%
≤90d 27 -24.7% -31.8% 37% 37% -32.6%
all 27 -24.7% -31.8% 37% 37% -32.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.8% 37% -32.6%
10% -38.4% 30% -39.1%
15% -44.3% 19% -45.0%
20% -49.8% 19% -50.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$30 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$300
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses10 / 17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)27 / 27
History coverage11d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 27 Trades
no open positions (12 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 13 $113 −$8 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 13 $21 −$21 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 13 $11 +$7 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 13 $11 +$10 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 13 $11 +$10 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$10 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 12 $104 −$16 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 12 $53 +$13 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 12 $103 +$26 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 12 $129 +$42 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 12 $26 +$17 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 12 $201 +$42 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 12 $103 −$100 -97%
Tuyo FDV above $150M one day after launch? Jun 11 $23 −$13 -56%
Tuyo FDV above $300M one day after launch? Jun 11 $13 −$2 -17%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? Jun 11 $8 +$2 +19%
Base FDV above $1B one day after launch? Jun 11 $22 −$2 -7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $214 −$200 -94%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $203 −$84 -41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Down 26¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Up 73¢ $99 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $51 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $51 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $11 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $11 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $11 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $11 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $21 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $11 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $11 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $11 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $11 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $11 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Up 36¢ $88 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $52 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $52 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET SELL Up 33¢ $66 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $53 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $129 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $103 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Up 78¢ $171 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $103 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $26 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 65 history records