Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:52:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
23 0x2342…12d6 sports 383 markets active 1h ago coverage 51d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$612 (-3%) realized −$591 · open −$21
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate53%198W / 177L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day8.8pace
Fees−$242est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$415now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$86
7 days−$1
14 days−$62
30 days−$1,110
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% −$292
other 12% −$453
crypto 1% −$6
politics 0% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 -0.7% -10.1% 50% 50% -9.5%
≤30d 361 -0.2% -9.7% 53% 52% -14.4%
≤90d 375 -0.3% -9.8% 53% 51% -12.3%
all 375 -0.3% -9.8% 53% 51% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 51% -12.3%
10% -18.4% 50% -20.7%
15% -26.3% 47% -28.3%
20% -33.5% 43% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$51 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

51d coverage
Net worth$415
Realized−$591
Unrealized−$21
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses198 / 177
Est. fees paid−$242
Open positions8
Markets (closed)375 / 383
History coverage51d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day8.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 375 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 86¢ 90¢ $101 $107 +$5 (+5%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $74 −$26 (-26%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? No 33¢ 34¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Iraq 65¢ 66¢ $50 $51 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: France (-2.5) Senegal 80¢ 80¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No 86¢ 84¢ $51 $50 −$1 (-2%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 81¢ 82¢ $31 $31 +$1 (+2%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 52¢ 53¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 174 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $51 −$51 -99%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $102 +$81 +79%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $51 +$12 +24%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $51 +$58 +114%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $51 +$18 +36%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $51 +$66 +129%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 15 $51 +$34 +66%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $102 −$5 -5%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -99%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 14 $51 +$63 +124%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $51 +$60 +119%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Polina Kudermetova vs Sinja Jun 14 $51 −$2 -3%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $51 +$88 +172%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $51 +$46 +90%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $51 +$72 +140%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $50 +$15 +29%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 12 $51 −$50 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $51 −$50 -99%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $101 +$25 +24%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $51 −$50 -99%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $51 +$50 +97%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5 Jun 12 $51 +$48 +93%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $102 −$101 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $51 −$50 -98%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $51 +$37 +73%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 11 $51 +$44 +86%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5 Jun 11 $51 +$48 +93%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $51 −$50 -98%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $51 −$50 -98%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 11 $51 +$50 +97%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 217.5 Jun 11 $51 −$50 -98%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $51 +$30 +60%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $51 +$50 +97%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 10 $51 −$50 -98%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 10 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 10 $51 +$44 +86%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $51 +$54 +105%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $51 −$50 -98%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $51 −$50 -99%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 Jun 10 $102 +$95 +93%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 10 $51 +$72 +140%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Senegal 80¢ $51 55m
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Iraq 65¢ $51 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 33¢ $51 1h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 75¢ $51 3h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 40¢ $51 20h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 55¢ $51 22h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 55¢ $51 22h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $51 23h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Power Rangers 80¢ $51 25h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 46¢ $51 26h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 73¢ $51 31h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $51 39h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 48¢ $51 40h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox SELL Texas Rangers 81¢ $82 42h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 33¢ $51 43h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 71¢ $51 44h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Texas Rangers 48¢ $51 44h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 46h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves 47¢ $51 2d
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY San Diego Padres 44¢ $51 2d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Curaçao 50¢ $51 2d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Curaçao 50¢ $51 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 45¢ $51 2d
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Polina Kudermetova vs Sinja BUY Polina Kudermetova 51¢ $51 2d
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Chicago Cubs 52¢ $51 2d
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 54¢ $51 2d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Qatar 41¢ $51 3d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 60¢ $51 3d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $51 3d
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) BUY Philadelphia Phillies 49¢ $51 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $414.65 · official $414.65 (match) · 660 history records