Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T02:12:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5

score

23 0x233f…1481 sports 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 12d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample

! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$21 (+9%) realized +$38 · open −$17

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +35% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +17% what you keep after slip

Net edge+17%after slip

Net WR45%break-even

Win rate45%10W / 12L

Drawdown48%max

Avg bet$7per market

Trades / day3.2pace

Fees−$3est.

Kalshi-fit64%portable

Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$13

7 days+$28

14 days+$66

30 days+$66

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +45%

net ROI/market (all)+21.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	19	+19.5%	+8.1%	37%	37%	+13.5%
≤30d	22	+34.6%	+21.8%	45%	45%	+31.2%
≤90d	22	+34.6%	+21.8%	45%	45%	+31.2%
all	22	+34.6%	+21.8%	45%	45%	+31.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover3.2 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+21.8%	45%	+31.2%
10%	+10.1%	45%	+18.6%
15%	-0.5%	45%	+7.1%
20%	-10.3%	45%	-3.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 19% · top 2 33% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +45% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +35% · $-wt +45% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +82% → late -13% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$13 vs −$5 · ×2.41 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×2.01 per $1 lost it wins $2.01

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage

Net worth$10

Realized+$38

Unrealized−$17

Win rate (resolved)45%

Wins / losses10 / 12

Est. fees paid−$3

Open positions1

Markets (closed)22 / 33

History coverage12d

Avg bet$7

Trades / day3.2

Drawdown48%

Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 22 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5	Over	44¢	16¢	$27	$10	−$17 (-63%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany O/U 2.5	Jun 29	$23	−$23	-98%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5	Jun 29	$13	+$10	+79%
Julián Quiñones: 1+ goals	Jun 25	$11	+$24	+226%
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil O/U 2.5 AND Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U	Jun 25	$5	+$18	+351%
Rayan: 1+ goals	Jun 25	$5	−$5	-100%
Vinícius Júnior: 3+ goals	Jun 25	$4	−$4	-100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia 1st Half O/U 1.5	Jun 25	$5	−$5	-100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	Jun 25	$4	−$4	-100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 4.5 Corners	Jun 25	$8	−$8	-100%
Lucas Paquetá: 1+ goals	Jun 25	$5	−$5	-100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	Jun 25	$4	−$4	-100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 5.5 Corners	Jun 25	$3	−$3	-100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 6.5 Corners	Jun 25	$2	−$2	-100%
James Rodríguez: 1+ goals	Jun 25	$1	−$1	-100%
Jhon Arias: 1+ goals	Jun 25	$1	−$1	-100%
Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals	Jun 25	$4	+$7	+206%
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil O/U 1.5 AND Switzerland vs. Canada: Switze	Jun 25	$5	+$17	+331%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals	Jun 24	$3	+$5	+139%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 AND Switzerland vs. Canada:	Jun 24	$5	+$12	+236%
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals	Jun 18	$1	+$1	+146%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 2.5	Jun 18	$10	+$17	+165%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 1.5	Jun 18	$24	+$19	+80%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	44¢	$27	1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany O/U 2.5	BUY Over	42¢	$23	6h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	100¢	$23	6h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	55¢	$13	8h
Julián Quiñones: 1+ goals	BUY Yes	30¢	$11	5d
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 9.5 Total Corners AND South Africa vs. Korea R	BUY	15¢	$6	5d
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners AND Cz	BUY	15¢	$6	5d
Czechia vs. Mexico: Czechia O/U 1.5 AND South Africa vs. Korea Republi	BUY	14¢	$7	5d
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 1.5 AND Czechia vs	BUY	28¢	$7	5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-	BUY	35¢	$5	5d
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 AND Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2	BUY	23¢	$13	5d
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil O/U 1.5 AND Switzerland vs. Canada: Switze	SELL	99¢	$22	5d
Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals	SELL Yes	100¢	$11	5d
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	BUY Yes	32¢	$4	5d
Vinícius Júnior: 3+ goals	BUY Yes	28¢	$4	5d
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals	SELL Yes	100¢	$8	5d
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals	BUY Yes	41¢	$3	5d
Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals	BUY Yes	32¢	$4	5d
Lucas Paquetá: 1+ goals	BUY Yes	20¢	$5	5d
Rayan: 1+ goals	BUY Yes	25¢	$5	5d
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil O/U 2.5 AND Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U	BUY	22¢	$5	5d
Scotland vs. Brazil: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners AND Scotland vs. B	BUY	15¢	$5	5d
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil O/U 1.5 AND Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U	BUY	18¢	$5	5d
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil O/U 1.5 AND Switzerland vs. Canada: Switze	BUY	22¢	$5	5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Wi	BUY	4¢	$5	5d
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 AND Switzerland vs. Canada:	BUY	29¢	$5	5d
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 AND Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 AND Switz	BUY	8¢	$5	5d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 1.5	BUY Over	49¢	$14	11d
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	BUY Yes	17¢	$4	12d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 2.5	BUY Over	37¢	$10	12d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.12 · official $10.12 (match) · 85 history records