Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:41:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
23 0x233c…1dce politics 49 markets active 1h ago coverage 630d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$21 (-1%) realized −$21 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate12%6W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$84per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$7
14 days−$7
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 77% −$13
other 15% −$1
culture 4% $0
crypto 2% $0
sports 1% −$8
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -20.2% -27.8% 0% 0% -17.3%
≤30d 19 -5.4% -14.4% 11% 0% -11.5%
≤90d 38 -2.5% -11.8% 13% 0% -10.1%
all 48 -2.2% -11.5% 12% 0% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 0% -10.0%
10% -20.0% 0% -18.6%
15% -27.7% 0% -26.5%
20% -34.8% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 72% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

630d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized−$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses6 / 42
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)48 / 49
History coverage630d
Avg bet$84
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $9 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 16 $50 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $7 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $5 $0 -0%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $7 −$7 -100%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $7 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $10 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $10 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $10 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $10 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? Jun 02 $9 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May? Jun 02 $31 $0 +0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $10 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 29 $58 $0 -0%
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in May 24 $10 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 23 $10 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 22 $10 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $44 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 13 $45 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $47 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 08 $95 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $46 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 6? May 07 $18 $0 +2%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 02 $44 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 02 $47 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $45 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $43 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $43 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Apr 27 $46 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 21 $46 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $47 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $45 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $48 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $43 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 18 $47 $0 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Apr 11 $3 $0 +5%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in March? Apr 09 $6 $0 +0%
Trump out as President by March 31? Mar 06 $11 $0 +1%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 08 $10 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 18 $25 $0 -2%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 06 $13 $0 -1%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 06 $12 $0 -4%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 11 $21 $0 -2%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 10 $283 −$3 -1%
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? Oct 31 $755 −$5 -1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 28 $688 −$2 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 23 $1,128 −$3 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? BUY No 99¢ $26 1h
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $9 3h
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $9 4h
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $6 24h
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $6 24h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $7 6d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $7 6d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $5 6d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $5 6d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $7 8d
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 46¢ $7 8d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $7 8d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 11d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 11d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $10 12d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $10 12d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $10 13d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $10 13d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 15d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 15d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 16d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 16d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 17d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 17d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $10 18d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $10 18d
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? BUY No 100¢ $9 22d
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL No 100¢ $10 24d
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY No 100¢ $10 24d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.63 · official $25.63 (match) · 272 history records