Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T14:58:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5

score

23 0x233c…7a0b crypto 6 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable

Total PnL +$39 (+26%) realized +$13 · open +$26

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +45% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +26% what you keep after slip

Net edge+26%after slip

Net WR80%break-even

Win rate80%4W / 1L

Drawdown63%max

Avg bet$25per market

Trades / day6.0pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +80%

net ROI/market (all)+31.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	5	+44.8%	+31.0%	80%	80%	+21.8%
≤30d	5	+44.8%	+31.0%	80%	80%	+21.8%
≤90d	5	+44.8%	+31.0%	80%	80%	+21.8%
all	5	+44.8%	+31.0%	80%	80%	+21.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover6.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to15%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+31.0%	80%	+21.8%
10%	+18.5%	80%	+10.2%
15%	+7.0%	60%	-0.5%
20%	-3.5%	60%	-10.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 35% · top 2 65% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +35% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +45% · $-wt +35% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$16 vs −$25 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×2.6 per $1 lost it wins $2.6

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$26

Realized+$13

Unrealized+$26

Win rate (resolved)80%

Wins / losses4 / 1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)5 / 6

History coverage1d

Avg bet$25

Trades / day6.0

Drawdown63%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 5 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Up	0¢	70¢	$0	$26	+$26 (+0%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	Jun 28	$26	+$8	+32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Jun 28	$27	+$20	+74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Jun 28	$26	−$25	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	Jun 28	$27	+$22	+84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	Jun 28	$11	+$14	+133%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	BUY Up	80¢	$31	0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	BUY Down	72¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	BUY Down	54¢	$27	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	BUY Up	70¢	$26	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	BUY Up	51¢	$27	4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	BUY Down	40¢	$11	4h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.43 · official $29.05 · 10 history records