Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:15:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
23 0x233b…1f2c politics 481 markets active 0h ago coverage 97d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,972 (+2%) realized +$1,887 · open +$85
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate67%320W / 160L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$255per market
Trades / day21.7pace
Fees−$65est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$1,106now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$575
7 days+$1,260
14 days−$3,762
30 days−$305
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% +$2,840
politics 28% +$4,250
other 18% −$5,910
sports 3% +$288
tech 2% +$365
culture 2% −$480
crypto 2% −$212
economics 1% +$147
finance 0% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 +0.1% -9.5% 47% 35% -4.8%
≤30d 120 +1.0% -8.6% 52% 34% -10.0%
≤90d 373 +1.3% -8.3% 65% 25% -8.9%
all 480 +3.4% -6.4% 67% 28% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.4% 28% -8.6%
10% ← realistic here -15.4% 18% -17.4%
15% -23.6% 12% -25.4%
20% -31.1% 5% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$51 vs −$95 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$1,106
Realized+$1,887
Unrealized+$85
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses320 / 160
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$65
Open positions1
Markets (closed)480 / 481
History coverage97d
Avg bet$255
Trades / day21.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 480 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) Conor McGregor 30¢ 32¢ $1,021 $1,106 +$85 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $354 −$13 -4%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $750 −$216 -29%
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election Jun 18 $225 −$20 -9%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $1,050 +$647 +62%
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31? Jun 18 $4 −$1 -23%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 18 $300 −$20 -7%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 18 $231 +$89 +38%
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 18 $402 +$157 +39%
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 17 $350 −$202 -58%
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? Jun 17 $750 −$62 -8%
Will Shehbaz Sharif attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 17 $134 +$26 +19%
Will Jared Kushner attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 17 $109 +$2 +2%
Will Jackson Lahmeyer be the Republican nominee for OK-01? Jun 17 $402 +$53 +13%
Will no one dissent the June Fed decision? Jun 17 $350 +$10 +3%
Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? Jun 17 $9 −$2 -28%
Will Donald Trump attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 17 $131 +$147 +112%
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? Jun 17 $171 −$42 -25%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $22 +$8 +34%
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? Jun 17 $132 −$8 -6%
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? Jun 17 $70 −$1 -1%
Will Trump speak to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June? Jun 17 $31 −$7 -22%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 17 $400 +$30 +8%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $1,162 +$318 +27%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? Jun 15 $193 −$157 -82%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43 Jun 15 $800 −$350 -44%
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $750 +$647 +86%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $1,198 −$118 -10%
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher world Jun 15 $295 −$295 -100%
Will there be exactly 8 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi Jun 15 $230 −$230 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $1,050 −$64 -6%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $1,594 +$26 +2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 14 $557 −$152 -27%
Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the Jun 14 $197 −$51 -26%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 14 $867 −$62 -7%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $400 +$164 +41%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $1,496 +$306 +20%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 14 $633 +$130 +20%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $1,313 +$582 +44%
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in June? Jun 14 $400 +$181 +45%
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? Jun 14 $649 −$185 -28%
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June Jun 13 $250 +$54 +22%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47 Jun 13 $350 +$131 +38%
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June? Jun 13 $248 −$15 -6%
Will any OpenAI GPT model score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Exam? Jun 13 $234 +$13 +6%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 12, 2026? Jun 13 $304 +$43 +14%
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? Jun 12 $252 +$8 +3%
Will Spencer Pratt concede by June 15? Jun 12 $67 −$21 -31%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.25T by June 30? Jun 12 $182 −$10 -5%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 22? Jun 12 $205 +$40 +20%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 12 $302 +$68 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 32¢ $124 5m
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 32¢ $216 38m
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $55 38m
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 32¢ $1 39m
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $50 48m
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $354 1h
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election SELL No 70¢ $206 1h
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election BUY No 74¢ $225 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 59¢ $120 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 59¢ $15 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 59¢ $29 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $134 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $3 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $18 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $350 2h
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31? SELL Yes 18¢ $3 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 15¢ $280 3h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL No 31¢ $319 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 16¢ $300 3h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 23¢ $231 4h
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31? BUY Yes 22¢ $4 4h
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 79¢ $52 14h
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 71¢ $350 14h
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL Yes 40¢ $148 23h
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 93¢ $350 23h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? SELL No 18¢ $305 23h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? SELL No 18¢ $7 23h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? SELL No 18¢ $5 23h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? SELL No 18¢ $338 23h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? SELL No 18¢ $32 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,105.56 · official $1,105.56 (match) · 2388 history records