Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T16:19:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
23 0x233a…0858 crypto 138 markets active 1h ago coverage 517d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,385 (-12%) realized −$2,390 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate49%67W / 70L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$144per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$69
7 days−$69
14 days+$238
30 days+$98
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$2,598
finance 9% +$161
weather 1% +$25
world 0% −$3
sports 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -4.7% -13.8% 50% 50% -30.5%
≤30d 9 +3.4% -6.5% 67% 44% -3.7%
≤90d 14 -2.4% -11.7% 57% 36% +1.5%
all 137 -2.5% -11.8% 49% 34% -20.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 34% -20.7%
10% -20.2% 24% -28.3%
15% -28.0% 18% -35.2%
20% -35.0% 11% -41.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +11% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$76 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

517d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized−$2,390
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses67 / 70
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)137 / 138
History coverage517d
Avg bet$144
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 137 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on June 27? Yes 74¢ 82¢ $48 $53 +$5 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down on June 27? Jun 27 $151 −$58 -38%
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 27? Jun 27 $25 +$9 +35%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 4AM ET Jun 27 $77 −$31 -40%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 27? Jun 27 $45 +$11 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 20? Jun 20 $466 +$307 +66%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $151 +$48 +32%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase May 26-June 1? Jun 01 $368 −$192 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET May 31 $125 +$2 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 1AM ET May 31 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 28? May 28 $104 +$117 +112%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 30? Mar 30 $15 −$9 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Mar 30 $12 −$9 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Mar 30 $11 +$1 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down on March 30? Mar 29 $25 −$1 -5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on March 29? Mar 28 $151 +$3 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 29? Mar 28 $243 −$92 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 25? Mar 25 $91 −$87 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 25? Mar 24 $53 +$39 +73%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 23? Mar 23 $131 −$78 -59%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on March 23? Mar 22 $120 +$11 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 17, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Feb 18 $4 −$3 -76%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 17, 8PM ET Feb 18 $82 −$77 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 18? Feb 18 $137 −$56 -40%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on February 17 Feb 17 $93 +$44 +47%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on February 17? Feb 17 $243 −$150 -62%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 16, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Feb 16 $3 −$3 -85%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on February 17? Feb 16 $17 −$14 -82%
Ethereum Up or Down on February 16? Feb 16 $52 −$35 -67%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 16, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Feb 16 $26 +$26 +101%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on February 16? Feb 16 $124 −$98 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Feb 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Feb 15 $82 −$30 -36%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on February 15? Feb 15 $122 −$88 -72%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 14? Feb 14 $122 +$261 +215%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 24, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Dec 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 24, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Dec 25 $2 $0 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 24, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Dec 25 $2 $0 -4%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 24, 8PM ET Dec 25 $12 −$10 -82%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 24, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Dec 25 $11 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 24, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Dec 24 $6 +$5 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 24, 5AM ET Dec 24 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 24, 4AM ET Dec 24 $12 −$7 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 24, 3AM ET Dec 24 $8 +$4 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 23, 10PM ET Dec 24 $6 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 23, 10AM ET Dec 23 $44 −$23 -52%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 23, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Dec 23 $15 −$9 -65%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase December 16-22? Dec 22 $52 −$52 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down on December 20? Dec 21 $72 +$7 +10%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase December 2-8? Dec 07 $223 −$143 -64%
Ethereum Up or Down on December 6? Dec 06 $84 +$26 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY Yes 74¢ $49 47m
Ethereum Up or Down on June 27? SELL Up 96¢ $29 50m
Ethereum Up or Down on June 27? SELL Up 96¢ $0 50m
Ethereum Up or Down on June 27? SELL Up 96¢ $19 51m
Ethereum Up or Down on June 27? BUY Up 65¢ $34 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $34 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 27? BUY No 73¢ $25 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 4AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $21 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 4AM ET SELL Up 18¢ $21 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 4AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $56 8h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 27? SELL Yes 95¢ $56 8h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 27? BUY Yes 77¢ $9 9h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 27? BUY Yes 76¢ $5 9h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 27? BUY Yes 76¢ $25 10h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 27? BUY Yes 70¢ $6 10h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 27? BUY Yes 70¢ $0 10h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 27? SELL Up 16¢ $45 10h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 27? BUY Up 31¢ $1 12h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 27? BUY Up 39¢ $117 13h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 20? SELL Up 93¢ $467 7d
Ethereum Up or Down on June 20? SELL Up 97¢ $166 7d
Ethereum Up or Down on June 20? SELL Up 97¢ $140 7d
Ethereum Up or Down on June 20? BUY Up 51¢ $87 7d
Ethereum Up or Down on June 20? BUY Up 56¢ $112 7d
Ethereum Up or Down on June 20? BUY Up 57¢ $210 7d
Ethereum Up or Down on June 20? BUY Up 56¢ $58 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 2? SELL No 100¢ $199 25d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 2? BUY No 76¢ $26 25d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 2? BUY No 74¢ $76 25d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 2? BUY No 74¢ $49 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.38 · official $53.38 (match) · 635 history records