Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:38:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
23 0x2339…e4ac world 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 13d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$71 (+3%) realized +$71 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate60%3W / 2L
Drawdown3%max
Avg bet$370per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$324now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 13d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% +$59
world 42% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 5 +3.1% -6.8% 60% 0% -6.3%
≤90d 5 +3.1% -6.8% 60% 0% -6.3%
all 5 +3.1% -6.8% 60% 0% -6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.8% 0% -6.3%
10% -15.7% 0% -15.3%
15% -23.8% 0% -23.5%
20% -31.3% 0% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 89% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$2 · ×11.36 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×34.09 per $1 lost it wins $34.09
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$324
Realized+$71
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses3 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage13d
Avg bet$370
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30? No 96¢ 96¢ $324 $324 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $166 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $447 +$38 +8%
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $442 +$8 +2%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $416 +$24 +6%
US federally charges Cuba leader Miguel Diaz-Canel? Jun 11 $421 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $324.31 · official $324.31 (match) · 14 history records