Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:05:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
23 0x2339…adc2 sports 518 markets active 0h ago coverage 56d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 55d only
✗ bot/MM pace (53 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$19,371 (+2%) realized +$19,336 · open +$35
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate99%513W / 3L
Whale WR99%big bets
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$1,962per market
Trades / day53.4pace
Fees−$495est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3,684now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$433
7 days+$3,927
14 days+$4,978
30 days+$11,660
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$17,920
other 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (53 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 81 +1.7% -8.0% 100% 2% -7.5%
≤30d 326 +1.4% -8.3% 100% 2% -7.9%
≤90d 516 +1.6% -8.1% 99% 2% -7.9%
all 516 +1.6% -8.1% 99% 2% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover53.4 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.1% 2% -7.9%
10% -16.9% 1% -16.7%
15% ← realistic here -24.9% 1% -24.8%
20% -32.3% 1% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 99% (≥$2,006) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$19 · ×1.89 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×322.39 per $1 lost it wins $322.39
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$3,684
Realized+$19,336
Unrealized+$35
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses513 / 3
Whale WR (big bets)99%
Est. fees paid−$495
Open positions2
Markets (closed)516 / 518
History coverage56d ⚠
Avg bet$1,962
Trades / day53.4
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 516 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 1 Winner K27 99¢ 100¢ $3,115 $3,145 +$30 (+1%)
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Ivory - Game 1 Winner Ivory 99¢ 100¢ $534 $539 +$5 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 17 $1,133 +$11 +1%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $1,738 +$17 +1%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Group Jun 16 $395 +$4 +1%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $114 +$1 +1%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1,980 +$20 +1%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $63 +$1 +1%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $9 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $1,568 +$16 +1%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 16 $8,341 +$76 +1%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $8,926 +$118 +1%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $611 +$6 +1%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $692 +$7 +1%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $277 +$3 +1%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $517 +$5 +1%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs WinteR SquadronS - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $179 +$2 +1%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $99 +$1 +1%
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs InterActive Philippines - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $254 +$3 +1%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $783 +$8 +1%
Dota 2: RisingRage vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $218 +$2 +1%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $70 +$1 +1%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $755 +$8 +1%
Dota 2: WinteR SquadronS vs Ivory (BO3) - EPL World Series Southeast A Jun 15 $198 +$2 +1%
Dota 2: WinteR SquadronS vs Ivory - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $5,941 +$59 +1%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Jun 15 $239 +$2 +1%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $3,045 +$30 +1%
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - EPL World Series Southea Jun 15 $616 +$6 +1%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $2,054 +$21 +1%
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $209 +$2 +1%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International Chin Jun 15 $148 +$2 +1%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $91 +$1 +1%
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series S Jun 15 $1,518 +$15 +1%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $357 +$4 +1%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $193 +$2 +1%
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $71 +$1 +1%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $224 +$2 +1%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Group Jun 14 $5,240 +$760 +14%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $177 +$2 +1%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff Jun 14 $11,648 +$106 +1%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 14 $149 +$2 +1%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs TDK - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $54 +$1 +1%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $12,870 +$130 +1%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $12,834 +$166 +1%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 13 $12,870 +$130 +1%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $425 +$4 +1%
Dota 2: GG Boom vs Ignite - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $407 +$4 +1%
Dota 2: cyberdingzhen vs 4 Anchors and Ilmeria - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Dota 2: GG Boom vs Ignite - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $328 +$10 +3%
Dota 2: Estar Backs vs Gior Dota Team (BO3) - The International South Jun 13 $284 +$3 +1%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $3,964 +$40 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 1 Winner BUY K27 99¢ $145 7m
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 1 Winner BUY K27 99¢ $859 7m
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 1 Winner BUY K27 99¢ $2 7m
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 1 Winner BUY K27 99¢ $5 8m
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 1 Winner BUY K27 99¢ $990 8m
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 1 Winner BUY K27 99¢ $1,114 9m
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Ivory - Game 1 Winner BUY Ivory 99¢ $50 2h
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Ivory - Game 1 Winner BUY Ivory 99¢ $43 2h
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Ivory - Game 1 Winner BUY Ivory 99¢ $66 2h
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Ivory - Game 1 Winner BUY Ivory 99¢ $133 2h
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Ivory - Game 1 Winner BUY Ivory 99¢ $242 2h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Team Refuser 99¢ $1,133 2h
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner BUY PlayTime 99¢ $10 9h
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner BUY PlayTime 99¢ $616 9h
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner BUY PlayTime 99¢ $1,112 9h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Group BUY Spirit Academy 99¢ $10 13h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Group BUY Spirit Academy 99¢ $268 13h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Group BUY Spirit Academy 99¢ $3 13h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Group BUY Spirit Academy 99¢ $115 13h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Spirit Academy 99¢ $25 15h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Spirit Academy 99¢ $89 15h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 99¢ $13 16h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 99¢ $106 16h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 99¢ $106 16h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 99¢ $11 16h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 99¢ $93 16h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 99¢ $436 16h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 99¢ $106 16h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 99¢ $106 16h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 99¢ $106 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,683.82 · official $3,683.82 (match) · 3500 history records