Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:15:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
23 0x2337…f504 other 85 markets active 2h ago coverage 451d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$17 (+0%) realized +$17 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate54%45W / 39L
Drawdown51%max
Avg bet$97per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$16
14 days+$11
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 70% +$4
world 15% +$11
other 10% −$5
sports 2% +$7
crypto 2% $0
tech 1% +$1
culture 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +4.1% -5.8% 71% 14% -7.4%
≤30d 14 +1.9% -7.8% 43% 7% -9.2%
≤90d 29 +1.3% -8.4% 52% 3% -9.4%
all 84 -0.2% -9.7% 54% 4% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 4% -9.3%
10% -18.4% 4% -18.0%
15% -26.2% 2% -25.9%
20% -33.5% 1% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.0 per $1 lost it wins $2.0
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

451d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized+$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses45 / 39
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)84 / 85
History coverage451d
Avg bet$97
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown51%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 84 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $39 $39 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $1 $0 -14%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $19 $0 +2%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $190 +$4 +2%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 16 $9 $0 -1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $76 +$2 +3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $346 +$6 +2%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $9 +$3 +35%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $2,277 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 10 $158 −$5 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 10 $65 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $7 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 09 $62 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $45 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $158 $0 +0%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $6 $0 +1%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 24 $47 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 1080-1119 tweets in April 2026? Apr 23 $25 −$1 -4%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun Apr 22 $47 $0 +1%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 18 $16 +$1 +7%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 16 $17 $0 +2%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $4 $0 +3%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $222 −$1 -1%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 13 $151 −$4 -3%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 12 $2,136 +$1 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 12 $137 +$4 +3%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $95 $0 -0%
Will San Jose Earthquakes win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 10 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Apr 10 $1,064 +$1 +0%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Apr 10 $13 $0 +0%
Will Rumble buy TikTok? Dec 12 $27 $0 +2%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 16 $7 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jun 28 $8 $0 -2%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Jun 26 $11 $0 +1%
Will Taylor Fritz win Wimbledon 2025? Jun 20 $1 $0 -13%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? Jun 19 $17 $0 +0%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 25,000-50,000 between Jun 18 $8 $0 +0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 18 $8 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? Jun 18 $25 $0 +0%
Will Ali Khamenei be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 17 $6 +$3 +46%
Will PRO win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Jun 17 $2 $0 -2%
Will Inter Miami CF win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 16 $1 $0 -14%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in June? Jun 14 $8 $0 +1%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 12 $8 $0 -5%
Will Robert Negoiță be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 11 $9 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 100% and 150% on August Jun 10 $9 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be named in Epstein files? Jun 08 $9 $0 +0%
Will Hikaru Nakamura win the 2025 Norway Chess tournament? Jun 06 $16 +$1 +7%
Will the candidate from the People Power Party win the South Korean Pr Jun 05 $5 $0 +7%
Will Casper Ruud win the 2025 French Open? May 27 $26 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Isak be the top goalscorer in the EPL? May 27 $27 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $39 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 30h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $0 30h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 35h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 39h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $17 39h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $19 41h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $11 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $7 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $13 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $1 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $0 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $27 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes $0 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes $4 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes $1 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes $4 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 22¢ $44 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 22¢ $2 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 22¢ $31 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 21¢ $76 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $5 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $4 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 59¢ $181 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 57¢ $175 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $93 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $66 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $158 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes $11 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes $9 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.64 · official $38.64 (match) · 303 history records