Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:02:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
23 0x2334…cd00 other 1593 markets active 12h ago coverage 166d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 166d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$76 (+0%) realized +$144 · open −$68
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate95%1368W / 68L
Drawdown90%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day11.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$2,424now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$6
14 days−$4
30 days+$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 26% −$147
world 24% +$163
crypto 20% −$9
weather 9% −$7
finance 6% +$21
economics 4% +$5
politics 3% −$22
tech 3% +$23
sports 2% +$51
culture 2% +$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 68 -0.5% -10.0% 97% 3% -9.3%
≤30d 362 -1.6% -11.0% 96% 2% -9.2%
≤90d 1020 -0.8% -10.3% 96% 4% -8.7%
all 1436 -1.1% -10.5% 95% 6% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 6% -9.0%
10% -19.1% 3% -17.7%
15% -26.9% 2% -25.6%
20% -34.1% 1% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$7 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.38 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

166d coverage
Net worth$2,424
Realized+$144
Unrealized−$68
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses1368 / 68
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions153
Markets (closed)1436 / 1593
History coverage166d ⚠
Avg bet$20
Trades / day11.1
Drawdown90%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 153 History 1436 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $300 $279 −$21 (-7%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 13¢ $298 $238 −$60 (-20%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 82¢ 90¢ $164 $181 +$17 (+10%)
Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch? Yes 71¢ 72¢ $150 $151 +$1 (+1%)
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? No 83¢ 95¢ $125 $142 +$17 (+13%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? No 93¢ 96¢ $112 $115 +$3 (+3%)
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? No 90¢ 93¢ $108 $112 +$4 (+4%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $98 $99 +$2 (+2%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 17? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 17? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will Donald Trump be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 98¢ 100¢ $29 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? Yes 100¢ 99¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Opensea FDV above $5B one day after launch? No 98¢ 94¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Opensea FDV above $3B one day after launch? No 97¢ 93¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 73¢ 84¢ $15 $17 +$2 (+14%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 54¢ 52¢ $16 $15 −$1 (-5%)
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+0%)
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+0%)
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+0%)
Will Trump wear a Yarmulke in 2026? No 65¢ 72¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+10%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $45 by end of June? No 94¢ 99¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+5%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $170 by end of June? No 98¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? No 98¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $210 by end of June? No 98¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 14? Jun 15 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C or below on June 14? Jun 15 $6 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $138 −$8 -6%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $16 $0 +2%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 14 $1,270 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 13? Jun 13 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $40 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 11? Jun 13 $30 $0 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 12 $10 $0 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? Jun 12 $10 $0 +3%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 12 $27 +$3 +11%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Jun 12 $37 +$3 +9%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 12 $46 +$4 +9%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 12? Jun 12 $30 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,300 on June 12? Jun 12 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $30 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SPACE? Jun 12 $6 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SPC? Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $STAR? Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SEX? Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SX? Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $MARS? Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SPAX? Jun 12 $6 $0 +1%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 11? Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 11? Jun 12 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $6 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C or higher on June 11? Jun 11 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 11? Jun 11 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,300 on June 11? Jun 11 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $20 $0 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 11? Jun 11 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 11? Jun 11 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $30 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $20 12h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 12h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 12h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 12h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 17 BUY No 100¢ $8 12h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $7 12h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C or higher on June BUY No 100¢ $7 12h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $10 12h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $267 38h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 41h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY 70¢ $8 41h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 65¢ $117 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 65¢ $13 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 69¢ $138 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $16 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $498 2d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $1,174 2d
Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 98¢ $10 3d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $77 3d
Will Colombia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 91¢ $6 3d
Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 95¢ $6 3d
Will Mexico advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 98¢ $5 3d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY 77¢ $6 3d
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $6 4d
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C or below on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $6 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $7 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $6 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $10 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $40 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,423.70 · official $2,423.53 (match) · 3500 history records