Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:02:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
23 0x2331…a53d sports 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$30 (+12%) realized +$30 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%9W / 6L
Drawdown67%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day12.9pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% +$2
other 29% +$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +20.1% +8.6% 60% 60% -1.1%
≤30d 15 +20.1% +8.6% 60% 60% -1.1%
≤90d 15 +20.1% +8.6% 60% 60% -1.1%
all 15 +20.1% +8.6% 60% 60% -1.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.6% 60% -1.1%
10% -1.8% 60% -10.5%
15% -11.3% 53% -19.2%
20% -20.0% 47% -27.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 57% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +34% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$17 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized+$30
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses9 / 6
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)15 / 16
History coverage2d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day12.9
Drawdown67%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $6 +$4 +64%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $38 −$37 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $26 +$12 +46%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 16 $15 +$11 +71%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 16 $7 −$1 -9%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $4 +$3 +72%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $19 −$19 -97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $19 +$44 +228%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $30 −$29 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $7 −$7 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $22 +$15 +71%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $19 +$27 +137%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $12 +$4 +30%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5 Jun 14 $7 +$5 +62%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $12 −$8 -69%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 1h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks SELL Arizona Diamondbacks 97¢ $10 1h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 69¢ $38 3h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5 SELL Under 99¢ $38 3h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 66¢ $26 4h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds SELL Cincinnati Reds 97¢ $26 4h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 57¢ $6 4h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $6 4h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $7 5h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 65¢ $7 5h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $19 6h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 55¢ $15 6h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $4 6h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 99¢ $64 27h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 29¢ $19 30h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 56¢ $30 32h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 56¢ $7 36h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 99¢ $37 47h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $22 47h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 99¢ $43 2d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 35¢ $16 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 73¢ $16 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 54¢ $12 2d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5 SELL Under 97¢ $12 2d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5 BUY Under 58¢ $7 2d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 36¢ $3 2d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $4 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 17¢ $4 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 51¢ $12 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.20 · official $10.20 (match) · 29 history records