Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:07:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5

score

23 0x2330…ed99 weather 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover

Total PnL +$67 (+5%) realized +$18 · open +$49

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip

Net edge-30%after slip

Net WR33%break-even

Win rate78%7W / 2L

Drawdown18%max

Avg bet$100per market

Trades / day20.3pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit79%portable

Net worth$247now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +33%

net ROI/market (all)-17.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	9	-8.6%	-17.3%	78%	33%	-1.3%
≤30d	9	-8.6%	-17.3%	78%	33%	-1.3%
≤90d	9	-8.6%	-17.3%	78%	33%	-1.3%
all	9	-8.6%	-17.3%	78%	33%	-1.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover20.3 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-17.3%	33%	-1.3%
10% ← realistic here	-25.2%	22%	-10.8%
15%	-32.5%	22%	-19.4%
20%	-39.1%	0%	-27.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 50% · top 2 75% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

57% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -9% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$18 vs −$16 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×4.0 per $1 lost it wins $4.0

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$247

Realized+$18

Unrealized+$49

Win rate (resolved)78%

Wins / losses7 / 2

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions5

Markets (closed)9 / 14

History coverage1d

Avg bet$100

Trades / day20.3

Drawdown18%

Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 5 History 9 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?	No	39¢	60¢	$49	$75	+$26 (+54%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17?	No	75¢	100¢	$53	$70	+$18 (+33%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?	No	66¢	78¢	$33	$39	+$6 (+19%)
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 26, 2026?	No	80¢	78¢	$40	$39	−$1 (-2%)
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?	No	67¢	65¢	$24	$24	−$1 (-2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$141	+$65	+46%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 16?	Jun 17	$17	−$17	-100%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play	Jun 16	$68	+$32	+48%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner	Jun 16	$243	+$7	+3%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 16?	Jun 16	$76	+$5	+6%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 16?	Jun 16	$89	+$15	+17%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?	Jun 16	$126	+$2	+2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	Jun 16	$294	+$3	+1%
Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2026 New York 8th District Democratic Pri	Jun 16	$15	−$15	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?	BUY No	66¢	$33	1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?	BUY No	39¢	$49	1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?	SELL Yes	57¢	$94	1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?	SELL Yes	59¢	$3	1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?	BUY Yes	75¢	$128	1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17?	BUY No	75¢	$54	2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	68¢	$141	6h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play	BUY Team Vitality	67¢	$68	13h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 16?	SELL No	99¢	$81	14h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 16?	SELL Yes	99¢	$104	14h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 16?	BUY Yes	84¢	$89	14h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 16?	BUY No	93¢	$76	14h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?	SELL No	64¢	$128	14h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 16?	BUY Yes	59¢	$17	15h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner	BUY Leviatán Esports	97¢	$243	15h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	SELL Yes	99¢	$297	15h
Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2026 New York 8th District Democratic Pri	BUY No	59¢	$15	25h
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last E	BUY No	67¢	$25	25h
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 26, 2026?	BUY No	80¢	$40	25h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	BUY Yes	98¢	$294	25h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?	BUY No	62¢	$126	25h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $247.36 · official $247.17 (match) · 26 history records