Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T03:57:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
23 0x232e…da63 crypto 99 markets active 2h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$631 (-33%) realized −$630 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate52%44W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day18.2pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$786
7 days−$650
14 days−$640
30 days−$640
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% −$593
crypto 24% −$36
sports 10% −$12
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-24.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 79 -11.8% -20.2% 54% 44% -41.9%
≤30d 85 -16.0% -24.0% 52% 42% -40.8%
≤90d 85 -16.0% -24.0% 52% 42% -40.8%
all 85 -16.0% -24.0% 52% 42% -40.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.0% 42% -40.8%
10% -31.3% 32% -46.5%
15% -37.9% 26% -51.6%
20% -44.0% 18% -56.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -35% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -35% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$25 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$630
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses44 / 41
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)85 / 99
History coverage10d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day18.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 85 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $36 +$25 +70%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end Jun 27 $5 +$8 +160%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $34 −$12 -36%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $830 −$801 -96%
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 25 $6 −$6 -90%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $1 +$1 +38%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $92 +$65 +71%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Qatar? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 23 $7 −$7 -100%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 23 $12 −$12 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 23 $41 −$41 -100%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 23 $1 $0 -13%
Scotland leading at halftime? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 23 $6 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 23 $8 −$4 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 23 $1 +$3 +218%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $28 +$33 +119%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 22 $20 +$19 +93%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 22 $10 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$1 -48%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 22 $21 −$8 -38%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 22 $25 +$2 +7%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 22 $6 −$6 -99%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 22 $11 +$1 +13%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 22 $20 +$3 +13%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 22 $10 +$1 +11%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 22 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $8 +$27 +325%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 21 $20 +$1 +6%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 21 $20 +$4 +18%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$1 +7%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 21 $6 +$1 +22%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $89 +$42 +48%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $10 +$7 +70%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 21 $10 +$2 +20%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 21 $10 +$2 +20%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 21 $70 −$9 -12%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 21 $10 +$2 +23%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 21 $31 +$10 +32%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 21 $10 +$4 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $61 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? AND BUY 36¢ $10 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY 20¢ $4 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end SELL 46¢ $13 2h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 22¢ $22 2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND BUY 6¢ $2 4h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals AND Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 7.5 Total Corners AN BUY 25¢ $2 4h
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-2 BUY 2¢ $1 4h
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? AND Will Canada win on 202 BUY 3¢ $1 4h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw BUY 22¢ $1 4h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY 16¢ $1 4h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY 22¢ $1 4h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw BUY 2¢ $1 4h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end BUY 17¢ $5 4h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AN BUY 2¢ $2 4h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $36 4h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 33¢ $34 4h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 4h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-25 BUY 2¢ $2 30h
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 30h
Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals AND Brahim Díaz: 1+ goals BUY 19¢ $1 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 72¢ $1 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $539 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $158 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 46¢ $20 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 46¢ $4 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 51¢ $29 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $63 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.94 · official $20.17 · 216 history records