Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:11:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
23 0x232b…3432 crypto 37 markets active 2d ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$26 (-16%) realized −$26 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate48%15W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day10.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$31
sports 1% $0
other 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-34.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -27.0% -34.0% 48% 23% -27.4%
≤30d 31 -27.0% -34.0% 48% 23% -27.4%
≤90d 31 -27.0% -34.0% 48% 23% -27.4%
all 31 -27.0% -34.0% 48% 23% -27.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.0% 23% -27.4%
10% -40.3% 23% -34.3%
15% -46.1% 19% -40.7%
20% -51.4% 13% -46.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$26
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses15 / 16
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)31 / 37
History coverage4d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day10.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 31 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) AND Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 15 $0 $0 -13%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$2 +166%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +38%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1 $0 +7%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 11 $23 −$21 -93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 11 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 11 $23 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 11 $11 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 11 $23 +$2 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 11 $11 +$12 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 11 $12 +$3 +28%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 11 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$3 +160%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +10%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$2 -63%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) AND Spread BUY 4¢ $0 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 41h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) AND Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) SELL 26¢ $0 41h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) AND Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) BUY 29¢ $0 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 41h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 41h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 41h
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 74¢ $1 41h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) AND Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) AND Spread: Netherla BUY 2¢ $0 3d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 AND Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 AND Côt BUY 6¢ $0 3d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) AND Spread: United States (-1.5) AND Spread: Swi BUY 6¢ $0 5d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 AND Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U BUY 11¢ $0 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegov BUY 10¢ $0 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 5d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $11 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 6d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 68¢ $1 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 85 history records