Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T12:34:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
23 0x232b…b4d4 crypto 56 markets active 2h ago coverage 150d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$349 (+7%) realized +$349 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate78%43W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$86per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$93now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 55% +$6
sports 44% +$409
other 2% −$73
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-1.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 16 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 33 +22.4% +10.8% 97% 18% +6.8%
all 55 +8.5% -1.8% 78% 27% -3.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.8% 27% -3.0%
10% -11.2% 25% -12.2%
15% -19.8% 25% -20.7%
20% -27.7% 24% -28.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
65% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$72 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.4 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

150d coverage
Net worth$93
Realized+$349
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses43 / 12
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)55 / 56
History coverage150d
Avg bet$86
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $93 $93 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 18? Jun 18 $93 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 17? Jun 17 $93 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 15? Jun 15 $92 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 12? Jun 12 $92 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 11? Jun 12 $92 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 10? Jun 11 $92 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 9? Jun 10 $92 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 8? Jun 09 $92 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 5? Jun 08 $92 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 4? Jun 05 $91 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 3? Jun 04 $91 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on June 2? Jun 03 $90 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 1? Jun 02 $90 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on May 30? Jun 01 $90 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on May 28? May 29 $90 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on May 19? May 28 $90 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on May 18? May 19 $89 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 15? May 18 $89 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on May 14? May 15 $89 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on May 13? May 14 $89 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 11? May 13 $88 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on May 8? May 11 $88 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 6? May 08 $87 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on May 5? May 06 $87 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on May 4? May 05 $87 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 1? May 04 $86 $0 +0%
Golden Knights vs. Utah Apr 27 $89 −$1 -1%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 25 $80 +$81 +101%
Canadiens vs. Lightning Apr 22 $84 +$48 +57%
Ducks vs. Predators Apr 17 $83 +$86 +104%
Devils vs. Bruins Apr 15 $88 +$66 +75%
Penguins vs. Islanders Mar 31 $74 +$83 +113%
Will AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester United FC end in a draw? Mar 23 $54 +$154 +285%
Kings vs. Islanders Mar 13 $96 −$96 -100%
Capitals vs. Flyers Mar 12 $85 +$96 +113%
Grizzlies vs. Nets Mar 09 $94 −$94 -100%
Maple Leafs vs. Devils Mar 05 $95 +$84 +89%
Bruins vs. Flyers Mar 02 $94 +$86 +91%
Islanders vs. Canadiens Feb 27 $70 +$89 +127%
Timberwolves vs. Trail Blazers Feb 24 $45 −$45 -100%
Kings vs. Grizzlies Feb 23 $92 −$92 -100%
Rockets vs. Hornets Feb 19 $59 −$59 -100%
Michigan Wolverines vs. Purdue Boilermakers Feb 17 $63 −$63 -100%
George Mason Patriots vs. George Washington Revolutionaries Feb 13 $69 −$69 -100%
Mavericks vs. Lakers Feb 13 $99 +$37 +37%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on February 11? Feb 12 $99 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on February 10? Feb 11 $99 $0 +0%
Knicks vs. Celtics Feb 09 $80 +$120 +150%
Bruins vs. Panthers Feb 05 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-01-31? Jan 30 $73 −$73 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $93 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $93 23h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $93 47h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $92 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $92 7d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $92 8d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $92 8d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $92 9d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $92 10d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $92 14d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 4? BUY No 99¢ $91 15d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 3? BUY Yes 100¢ $91 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $90 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $90 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on May 30? BUY No 100¢ $90 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $90 22d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on May 19? BUY No 100¢ $90 30d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on May 18? BUY No 100¢ $89 32d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 15? BUY No 99¢ $89 35d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on May 14? BUY No 100¢ $89 35d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on May 13? BUY No 100¢ $89 36d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 11? BUY No 100¢ $88 39d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on May 8? BUY No 99¢ $88 42d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 6? BUY No 99¢ $87 43d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on May 5? BUY No 100¢ $87 45d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on May 4? BUY No 100¢ $87 46d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 1? BUY No 100¢ $86 49d
Golden Knights vs. Utah SELL Golden Knights 52¢ $88 52d
Golden Knights vs. Utah BUY Golden Knights 52¢ $89 52d
Knicks vs. Hawks BUY Hawks 49¢ $80 56d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $92.77 · official $92.77 (match) · 103 history records