Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:40:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
23 0x232a…4895 weather 1581 markets active 1h ago coverage 38d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$278 (-6%) realized −$58 · open −$33
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate65%911W / 481L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day65.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$333now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$170
7 days−$106
14 days−$45
30 days+$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 90% +$133
crypto 3% +$25
world 2% +$1
sports 2% +$12
other 1% −$25
politics 1% −$13
tech 0% $0
finance 0% +$1
economics 0% −$3
culture 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 294 +2.6% -7.1% 63% 54% -21.0%
≤30d 1001 +2.3% -7.5% 68% 61% -8.6%
≤90d 1392 -0.9% -10.3% 65% 59% -10.7%
all 1392 -0.9% -10.3% 65% 59% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover65.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.3% 59% -10.7%
10% ← realistic here -18.9% 47% -19.3%
15% -26.7% 29% -27.1%
20% -33.9% 16% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$333
Realized−$58
Unrealized−$33
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses911 / 481
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions145
Markets (closed)1392 / 1581
History coverage38d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day65.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 145 History 1392 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 16? No 52¢ 50¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 16? No 80¢ 80¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 15? No 52¢ 50¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-5%)
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 20? No 76¢ 60¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-21%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 83¢ 90¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 16? No 55¢ 54¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-2%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 39¢ 90¢ $3 $6 +$3 (+132%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 15? No 78¢ 99¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+27%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Yes 69¢ 96¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+38%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 15? No 84¢ 81¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 16? No 77¢ 74¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 15? No 67¢ 53¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-21%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Yes 64¢ 87¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+37%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? No 73¢ 92¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+27%)
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? No 83¢ 84¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 15? No 59¢ 100¢ $3 $4 +$2 (+68%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 15? No 69¢ 58¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-15%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 15? No 71¢ 76¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? No 82¢ 82¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+0%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Yes 27¢ 76¢ $1 $4 +$3 (+180%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 70¢ 99¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+41%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 15? No 91¢ 100¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 13? No 94¢ 100¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 15? No 73¢ 66¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-10%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 15? No 74¢ 79¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 9°C on May 3? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on May 4? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 2, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on May 8? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 19°C on May 2? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 4? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 17°C on May 2? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 22°C on May 4? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 30, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 30, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 16°C on May 9? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on May 3? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on May 4? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on April 30? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 1, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 18°C on May 2? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C or higher on May 8? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 29°C on May 3? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on April 30? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 17°C on May 4? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on May 1? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 13°C on April 30? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 5°C on May 2? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 6, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on May 8? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 2, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 19°C on April 30? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 2, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 30, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 30, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 1, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 21°C on May 5? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on May 4? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on May 8? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 29°C on May 2? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on May 8? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 1? Jun 15 $29 −$29 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on May 3? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C on April 30? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on May 3? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on May 2? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 19°C on May 8? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on May 8? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 20? BUY No 62¢ $2 49m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 16? BUY No 80¢ $2 55m
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 51¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 16? BUY No 88¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 16? BUY No 96¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 16? BUY No 78¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 89¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 16? BUY No 96¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 78¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 16? BUY No 77¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 16? BUY No 59¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 78¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 78¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 16? BUY No 90¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 67¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 16? BUY No 63¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 16? BUY No 67¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 75¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 61¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 16? BUY No 55¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 16? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? BUY No 75¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 67¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 16? BUY No 65¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 51¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 66¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $333.27 · official $333.51 (match) · 3500 history records