Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:03:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
23 0x2327…bb63 other 161 markets active 1h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$55 (-0%) realized −$55 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate12%20W / 140L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$141per market
Trades / day6.5pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$17
14 days−$29
30 days−$52
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 32% −$30
other 25% −$17
sports 16% $0
crypto 9% −$14
economics 5% $0
world 5% −$1
culture 3% −$8
finance 3% −$8
tech 2% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -0.9% -10.4% 0% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 69 -0.9% -10.3% 6% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 147 -0.6% -10.0% 10% 0% -9.9%
all 160 -0.5% -10.0% 12% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$57
Realized−$55
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses20 / 140
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)160 / 161
History coverage100d
Avg bet$141
Trades / day6.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 160 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $57 $57 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Philadelphia Flyers be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Cham Jun 18 $58 −$1 -2%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 18 $109 −$1 -1%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $43 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 17 $252 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $104 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $111 $0 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 16 $219 −$4 -2%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 15 $92 $0 -0%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $312 −$2 -1%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $60 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 14 $57 −$3 -5%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $122 −$1 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? Jun 14 $48 $0 -1%
Will Raphinha be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $64 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Jun 13 $59 −$1 -2%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 13 $50 −$1 -2%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $97 $0 -0%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 12 $53 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $480 −$1 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 11 $47 $0 -1%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Jun 11 $106 −$1 -1%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-3.5) Jun 11 $50 +$4 +7%
Will Portugal score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $40 −$2 -4%
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 10 $42 −$1 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $50 −$1 -1%
Will Lautaro Martinez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 10 $52 $0 -0%
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $53 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $255 −$1 -1%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Jun 07 $47 −$1 -2%
Will Senegal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $49 −$3 -6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $249 −$1 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $214 −$1 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 05 $47 −$1 -2%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $789 −$3 -0%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 04 $42 $0 -0%
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 04 $11 $0 -1%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $42 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $157 −$1 -1%
Will San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship? Jun 03 $47 −$1 -1%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 03 $229 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $153 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $63 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 01 $603 −$2 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $52 $0 +0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $252 −$1 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $113 −$1 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $282 −$1 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $88 −$1 -1%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $221 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 29 $48 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $57 47m
Will the Philadelphia Flyers be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Cham SELL No 96¢ $53 1h
Will the Philadelphia Flyers be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Cham BUY No 98¢ $43 6h
Will the Philadelphia Flyers be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Cham BUY No 98¢ $10 6h
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $52 6h
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $25 11h
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $21 11h
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $6 11h
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $42 12h
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $43 18h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 94¢ $50 19h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 96¢ $51 26h
Will the Philadelphia Flyers be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Cham SELL No 92¢ $5 26h
Will the Philadelphia Flyers be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Cham BUY No 98¢ $5 34h
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $56 35h
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $56 39h
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 97¢ $5 40h
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $5 2d
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $59 2d
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $59 2d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 90¢ $43 2d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $45 2d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 97¢ $44 2d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 96¢ $44 2d
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $53 2d
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $53 3d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $59 3d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $60 3d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 88¢ $54 3d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $28 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.79 · official $56.79 (match) · 701 history records