Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:00:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
23 0x2326…bd49 other 121 markets active 1h ago coverage 102d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$40 (-0%) realized −$40 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate14%17W / 103L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$150per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days−$21
14 days−$27
30 days−$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 27% −$11
sports 25% −$13
other 25% −$24
culture 6% −$5
crypto 6% −$2
tech 4% +$3
world 3% −$3
finance 2% −$2
economics 2% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -0.7% -10.2% 10% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 60 -0.6% -10.1% 12% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 101 -0.4% -9.9% 14% 0% -9.9%
all 120 -0.4% -9.9% 14% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 47% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized−$40
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses17 / 103
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)120 / 121
History coverage102d
Avg bet$150
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 120 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 97¢ 97¢ $43 $43 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 20 $149 −$3 -2%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 20 $102 −$1 -1%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 19 $258 −$3 -1%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $216 $0 -0%
Will Senegal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $64 −$2 -3%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $61 $0 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 18 $318 −$3 -1%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 17 $104 −$1 -1%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $327 −$1 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $112 $0 -0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 16 $124 −$1 -1%
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 16 $57 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? Jun 16 $53 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $51 +$1 +1%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $59 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $110 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $109 −$1 -1%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 14 $166 −$2 -2%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 14 $119 −$1 -1%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $58 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $66 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $55 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Jun 12 $18 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Jun 12 $89 −$1 -1%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 12 $72 −$1 -2%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $55 $0 -0%
Will Vinícius Jr. win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $49 −$2 -3%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 11 $62 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? Jun 11 $39 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $50 $0 -0%
Will Belgium score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $7 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $50 −$1 -2%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $55 $0 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 07 $48 $0 -0%
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $53 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 06 $105 $0 -0%
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $118 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $55 −$1 -1%
Will Boston Celtics win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 05 $85 −$4 -5%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 05 $601 −$2 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $175 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $97 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $89 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Jun 02 $56 −$1 -1%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Jun 01 $440 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 01 $223 −$1 -0%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $162 $0 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $55 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $105 $0 -0%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 30 $94 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $43 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $53 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $54 5h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 95¢ $56 6h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 95¢ $51 13h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 95¢ $5 13h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 95¢ $45 14h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $46 19h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $43 19h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $44 27h
Will Senegal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 94¢ $62 28h
Will Senegal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $64 34h
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $61 35h
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $61 41h
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 90¢ $55 41h
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 91¢ $56 2d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $61 2d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $62 2d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $47 2d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $47 2d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 95¢ $47 2d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $47 2d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 94¢ $56 2d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 94¢ $56 3d
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $59 3d
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $59 3d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $63 3d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $53 3d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $10 3d
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 97¢ $57 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.78 · official $42.78 (match) · 473 history records