Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T22:56:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
23 0x2322…3ede crypto 124 markets active 0h ago coverage 12d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 11d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (295 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$11,132 (+1%) realized +$11,138 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate72%87W / 33L
Whale WR53%big bets
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$12,161per market
Trades / day294.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$11,519now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$606
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (295 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 75 +0.1% -9.5% 75% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 120 +0.1% -9.5% 72% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 120 +0.1% -9.5% 72% 0% -9.5%
all 120 +0.1% -9.5% 72% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover294.9 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.5% 0% -9.5%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.1%
15% ← realistic here -26.0% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 53% (≥$14,985) neutral
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$1 · ×6.33 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×16.68 per $1 lost it wins $16.68
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$11,519
Realized+$11,138
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses87 / 33
Whale WR (big bets)53%
Open positions4
Markets (closed)120 / 124
History coverage12d ⚠
Avg bet$12,161
Trades / day294.9
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 120 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 June 22-28? No 100¢ 100¢ $7,246 $7,243 −$3 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 June 22-28? No 100¢ 100¢ $4,190 $4,188 −$2 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 27? No 100¢ 99¢ $88 $87 −$0 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 June 22-28? No 100¢ 100¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 28? Jun 27 $300 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 28? Jun 27 $1,424 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 27? Jun 27 $4,323 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 27? Jun 27 $49,496 −$4 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 27? Jun 27 $24,846 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 26? Jun 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 26? Jun 27 $2,065 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 on June 26? Jun 27 $54 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 26? Jun 27 $7,003 +$7 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 26? Jun 27 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 on June 26? Jun 27 $941 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $53,000 on June 26? Jun 27 $1,157 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 27? Jun 27 $11,363 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $2,263 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $49,216 +$49 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $4,066 +$6 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $23,326 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 25? Jun 26 $2,880 +$3 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 on June 25? Jun 26 $240 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 25? Jun 26 $1,919 +$2 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 on June 25? Jun 26 $1,314 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 25? Jun 26 $2,989 +$11 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $8,082 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $35,074 −$3 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $26,668 +$27 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $69,689 +$63 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $4,995 +$5 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $64,884 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 on June 24? Jun 25 $4,257 +$4 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 24? Jun 25 $2,873 +$3 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 on June 24? Jun 25 $6,993 +$7 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 24? Jun 25 $198 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $223 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $43,441 −$3 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $999 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $14,985 +$15 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $34,938 +$11 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 23? Jun 24 $500 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 23? Jun 24 $30,218 +$28 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 23? Jun 24 $105 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $58,941 +$59 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $33,283 +$23 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $56,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $18,860 +$7 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $49,670 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $71,000 on June 22? Jun 23 $9,845 +$10 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 on June 22? Jun 23 $300 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 22? Jun 23 $1,807 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 22? Jun 23 $30 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 22? Jun 23 $1 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $3 16m
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $1 16m
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $1 16m
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $10 16m
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $1 16m
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $10 16m
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $1 16m
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $115 30m
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 June 22-28? SELL No 100¢ $215 39m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 28? SELL No 100¢ $100 41m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 28? SELL No 100¢ $200 42m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $100 42m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $200 42m
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 June 22-28? BUY No 100¢ $599 54m
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 June 22-28? SELL No 100¢ $599 56m
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 June 22-28? BUY No 100¢ $17 57m
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 June 22-28? BUY No 100¢ $6,513 57m
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 June 22-28? BUY No 100¢ $9 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 June 22-28? BUY No 100¢ $100 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 June 22-28? BUY No 100¢ $1,998 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 June 22-28? BUY No 100¢ $11 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 June 22-28? BUY No 100¢ $9 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 June 22-28? BUY No 100¢ $599 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 June 22-28? BUY No 100¢ $599 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 June 22-28? SELL No 100¢ $599 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 June 22-28? BUY No 100¢ $599 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 June 22-28? SELL No 100¢ $1,998 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 June 22-28? SELL No 100¢ $599 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 June 22-28? BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 June 22-28? BUY No 100¢ $4,367 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11,518.73 · official $11,518.35 (match) · 3500 history records