Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T01:58:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
23 0x2321…e151 crypto 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$38 (-9%) realized −$38 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate67%8W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day12.0pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% +$4
other 10% −$42
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -7.1% -16.0% 67% 0% -17.8%
≤30d 12 -7.1% -16.0% 67% 0% -17.8%
≤90d 12 -7.1% -16.0% 67% 0% -17.8%
all 12 -7.1% -16.0% 67% 0% -17.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.0% 0% -17.8%
10% -24.0% 0% -25.7%
15% -31.3% 0% -32.8%
20% -38.1% 0% -39.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 54% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$11 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$38
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses8 / 4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)12 / 12
History coverage1d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day12.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 12 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 26, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 27 $43 −$42 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 27 $43 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 27 $43 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 27 $42 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 27 $42 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 27 $42 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 26 $42 $0 -0%
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 26 $42 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 26 $21 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 26 $21 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 26 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 26 $20 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 26, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $43 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $43 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $43 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $42 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $42 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $42 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $20 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 23 history records