Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T02:50:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
23 0x2320…4869 crypto 55 markets active 2h ago coverage 98d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2,581 (+4%) realized +$2,599 · open −$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -47% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -56% what you keep after slip
Net edge-56%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate32%17W / 36L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$1,307per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$7,372now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 98d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% +$2,781
crypto 26% +$1,968
world 11% +$1
politics 1% −$24
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-51.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +5.5% -4.5% 88% 25% -1.1%
≤30d 13 -2.6% -11.8% 69% 15% -2.0%
≤90d 40 -44.1% -49.4% 35% 12% -2.7%
all 53 -46.9% -51.9% 32% 11% -2.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -51.9% 11% -2.9%
10% -56.5% 8% -12.2%
15% -60.7% 6% -20.7%
20% -64.6% 4% -28.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 68% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
59% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -47% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -67% → late -27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$334 vs −$26 · ×12.86 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.07 per $1 lost it wins $6.07
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$7,372
Realized+$2,599
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses17 / 36
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)53 / 55
History coverage98d
Avg bet$1,307
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $4,196 $4,194 −$2 (-0%)
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 26? No 99¢ 99¢ $3,194 $3,178 −$16 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $17,981 +$2,225 +12%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $16,323 +$1,650 +10%
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $5,049 +$245 +5%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $7,563 +$908 +12%
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $1,556 +$10 +1%
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $2,437 −$26 -1%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1,978 +$83 +4%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $2,043 +$19 +1%
Will Belgium reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $2,406 −$199 -8%
Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $102 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $92 +$9 +9%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4,995 +$333 +7%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 13 $50 −$42 -84%
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-10? May 27 $231 −$231 -100%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 14 $446 +$18 +4%
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31? May 02 $290 +$11 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 11? Apr 11 $20 −$14 -68%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 10? Apr 10 $28 +$59 +210%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 9? Apr 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 7? Apr 07 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 8? Apr 07 $23 −$21 -91%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 6? Apr 06 $19 +$8 +45%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 5? Apr 05 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 5? Apr 05 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 4? Apr 04 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 3? Apr 03 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 2? Apr 02 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 2? Apr 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 1? Apr 01 $15 −$6 -39%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 31? Mar 31 $22 −$22 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 31? Mar 31 $120 −$25 -21%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 30? Mar 30 $181 +$49 +27%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 29? Mar 29 $42 −$42 -100%
Will Alexander Albon finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Japanese Gran Mar 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Franco Colapinto finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Japanese Gra Mar 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Isack Hadjar finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand P Mar 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Pierre Gasly finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand P Mar 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Japanese Gr Mar 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 28? Mar 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 28? Mar 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: France (-1.5) Mar 26 $3 −$1 -38%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 26? Mar 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 26? Mar 26 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 25? Mar 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 25? Mar 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 24? Mar 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 24? Mar 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 23? Mar 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 23? Mar 23 $20 +$42 +208%
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? Mar 23 $100 +$8 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $417 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $3,779 1h
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 26? BUY No 99¢ $25 1h
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 26? BUY No 99¢ $3,170 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,116 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 99¢ $654 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 99¢ $99 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 99¢ $2,389 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 99¢ $9,199 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 99¢ $99 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 99¢ $5,651 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 88¢ $7 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 88¢ $17,975 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $628 5d
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 75¢ $621 5d
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 71¢ $4 5d
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 71¢ $4 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $1,500 5d
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 71¢ $53 5d
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 75¢ $56 5d
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 75¢ $89 5d
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 71¢ $4 5d
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 75¢ $305 5d
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 71¢ $46 5d
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 75¢ $942 5d
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 71¢ $4 5d
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 72¢ $3 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $1,408 5d
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 71¢ $1,408 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $42 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,371.83 · official $7,371.83 (match) · 346 history records