Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T12:25:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
23 0x231c…1047 other 115 markets active 2h ago coverage 117d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate12%14W / 100L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$275per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% −$17
politics 32% −$12
sports 6% +$32
crypto 4% −$1
world 2% $0
tech 2% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-2.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 10 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 98 +10.0% -0.5% 8% 6% -9.5%
all 114 +8.2% -2.1% 12% 7% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.1% 7% -9.5%
10% -11.5% 4% -18.2%
15% -20.0% 4% -26.1%
20% -27.9% 3% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 57% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +17% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$2 · ×7.12 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses14 / 100
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)114 / 115
History coverage117d
Avg bet$275
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 114 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $51 $51 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 21 $48 $0 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 15 $38 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $55 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $39 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $350 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $35 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $28 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 25 $334 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $239 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $296 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $283 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $339 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 19 $972 −$1 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 18 $299 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 17 $246 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 17 $320 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 16 $255 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 13 $241 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 13 $333 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 13 $262 $0 -0%
Will Luis Gilberto Murillo win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio May 13 $239 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 12 $301 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 12 $236 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in May? May 11 $244 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $257 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 10 $276 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $246 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in April? May 09 $55 $0 +0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 28 $880 −$1 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 27 $264 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 27 $267 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $245 $0 -0%
Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 26 $347 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 24 $345 $0 -0%
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 22 $299 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $269 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $244 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 21 $300 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 21 $635 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $286 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $242 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the televote for Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $285 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 19 $317 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $356 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $305 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $315 $0 -0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 17 $251 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $324 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 17 $243 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $334 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $51 1h
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $48 10h
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $48 11h
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $38 6d
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $38 6d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $55 6d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $55 7d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $39 9d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $39 9d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $42 9d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $42 13d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $35 13d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $35 14d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $28 14d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $28 21d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $334 27d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $334 28d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $239 28d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $239 29d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $296 29d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $296 30d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $283 30d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $283 31d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $339 31d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $339 32d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $338 33d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $338 33d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $299 33d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $299 33d
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $246 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.97 · official $50.97 (match) · 307 history records