Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T21:49:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
23 0x231a…a82f sports 111 markets active 1h ago coverage 113d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$636 (+2%) realized +$600 · open +$36
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%48W / 61L
Whale WR52%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$363per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$81est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$657now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$10
14 days−$10
30 days+$469
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% +$982
other 4% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -9.5% -18.1% 0% 0% -18.1%
≤30d 6 +34.4% +21.6% 17% 17% +119.6%
≤90d 33 +10.5% +0.0% 39% 39% +15.3%
all 109 +1.7% -8.0% 44% 44% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 44% -7.4%
10% -16.8% 44% -16.2%
15% -24.9% 44% -24.3%
20% -32.2% 42% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +28% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 52% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -3% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$402 vs −$327 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

113d coverage
Net worth$657
Realized+$600
Unrealized+$36
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses48 / 61
Whale WR (big bets)52%
Est. fees paid−$81
Open positions2
Markets (closed)109 / 111
History coverage113d
Avg bet$363
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 109 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 37¢ 57¢ $421 $654 +$234 (+56%)
Iraq leading at halftime? Yes $200 $3 −$198 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 47 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $103 −$10 -10%
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 01 $221 $0 +0%
UFC Fight Night: Alonzo Menifield vs. Zhang Mingyang (Light Heavyweigh May 30 $221 +$479 +216%
Will Diana Shnaider win the 2026 Women’s French Open? May 30 $28 $0 +0%
Will Martin Landaluce win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 29 $75 $0 +0%
Will Raphael Collignon win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 29 $35 $0 +0%
UFC Fight Night: Bernardo Sopaj vs. Timmy Cuamba (Bantamweight, Main C May 16 $48 $0 +0%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Casper Ruud vs Jiri Lehecka May 09 $377 −$370 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Max Griffin vs. Victor Valenzuela (Welterweight, Prel Apr 26 $125 +$112 +90%
Will Arvell Reese be the second pick in the 2026 NFL draft? Apr 23 $577 −$577 -100%
Bruins vs. Sabres Apr 22 $282 −$282 -100%
BMW Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Ben Shelton Apr 19 $416 +$372 +90%
UFC Fight Night: Thiago Moises vs. Gauge Young (Lightweight, Prelims) Apr 19 $708 −$9 -1%
UFC 327: Jirí Procházka vs. Carlos Ulberg (Light Heavyweight, Main Car Apr 13 $750 +$672 +90%
UFC 327: Cub Swanson vs. Nate Landwehr (Featherweight, Prelims) Apr 11 $672 −$662 -98%
Will JB Bickerstaff win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year? Apr 10 $391 −$391 -100%
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the Atlantic Division? Apr 08 $561 −$29 -5%
Bruins vs. Panthers Apr 03 $118 −$118 -100%
Red Wings vs. Flyers Apr 03 $100 −$100 -100%
76ers vs. Hornets Mar 29 $250 +$531 +212%
UFC Fight Night: Israel Adesanya vs. Joe Pyfer (Middleweight, Main Car Mar 29 $1,115 +$1,419 +127%
Spread: Rockets (-14.5) Mar 28 $400 +$384 +96%
Maple Leafs vs. Blues Mar 28 $350 −$350 -100%
Ducks vs. Oilers Mar 28 $300 −$300 -100%
Miami Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Arthur Fils Mar 28 $600 +$900 +150%
Zverev vs. Sinner: Match O/U 21.5 Mar 27 $425 −$425 -100%
Blue Jackets vs. Canadiens Mar 27 $800 +$800 +100%
Rockets vs. Timberwolves Mar 26 $500 +$611 +122%
Miami Open: Tommy Paul vs Arthur Fils Mar 26 $800 +$655 +82%
Kraken vs. Panthers Mar 26 $500 +$426 +85%
Spread: Clippers (-13.5) Mar 25 $343 +$357 +104%
Ducks vs. Canucks: O/U 6.5 Mar 25 $300 −$300 -100%
Pelicans vs. Knicks Mar 24 $376 −$376 -100%
Bucks vs. Suns Mar 23 $180 +$945 +525%
Lightning vs. Oilers Mar 22 $300 −$300 -100%
Spread: 76ers (-6.5) Mar 22 $800 −$800 -100%
Heat vs. Rockets Mar 21 $516 −$516 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Pelicans Mar 21 $245 −$245 -100%
Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5) Mar 21 $470 −$470 -100%
Spread: Arizona Wildcats (-30.5) Mar 21 $441 +$455 +103%
Miami Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Yibing Wu Mar 21 $500 +$587 +117%
Spread: Iowa Hawkeyes (-2.5) Mar 20 $200 −$199 -100%
Spread: Saint Mary's Gaels (-3.5) Mar 20 $397 +$352 +89%
Jets vs. Bruins Mar 20 $495 +$405 +82%
Kennesaw State Owls vs. Gonzaga Bulldogs Mar 20 $280 −$279 -100%
Miami Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli Mar 20 $324 +$576 +178%
Spread: Arkansas Razorbacks (-15.5) Mar 19 $588 −$585 -100%
Spread: SMU Mustangs (-7.5) Mar 19 $820 +$407 +50%
Penguins vs. Hurricanes Mar 19 $645 +$507 +79%
Flyers vs. Ducks Mar 18 $581 −$581 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iraq leading at halftime? BUY Yes $82 1h
Iraq leading at halftime? BUY Yes $124 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes $93 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes $103 1h
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 10¢ $208 21d
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 10¢ $13 21d
Will Diana Shnaider win the 2026 Women’s French Open? BUY Yes $2 23d
Will Diana Shnaider win the 2026 Women’s French Open? BUY Yes $0 23d
UFC Fight Night: Alonzo Menifield vs. Zhang Mingyang (Light Heavyweigh BUY Alonzo Menifield 31¢ $221 23d
Will Diana Shnaider win the 2026 Women’s French Open? BUY Yes $0 23d
Will Diana Shnaider win the 2026 Women’s French Open? BUY Yes $0 24d
Will Diana Shnaider win the 2026 Women’s French Open? BUY Yes $1 24d
Will Diana Shnaider win the 2026 Women’s French Open? BUY Yes $0 24d
Will Martin Landaluce win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes $3 24d
Will Martin Landaluce win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes $0 24d
Will Martin Landaluce win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes $0 24d
Will Martin Landaluce win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes $0 24d
Will Martin Landaluce win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes $0 24d
Will Martin Landaluce win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes $0 24d
Will Martin Landaluce win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes $0 24d
Will Martin Landaluce win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes $0 24d
Will Diana Shnaider win the 2026 Women’s French Open? BUY Yes $22 24d
Will Diana Shnaider win the 2026 Women’s French Open? BUY Yes $0 24d
Will Diana Shnaider win the 2026 Women’s French Open? BUY Yes $3 24d
Will Raphael Collignon win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes $35 24d
Will Martin Landaluce win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes $0 24d
Will Martin Landaluce win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes $48 24d
Will Martin Landaluce win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes $19 24d
Will Martin Landaluce win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes $4 24d
UFC Fight Night: Bernardo Sopaj vs. Timmy Cuamba (Bantamweight, Main C BUY Timmy Cuamba 47¢ $48 36d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $656.97 · official $674.77 · 380 history records