Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:52:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
23 0x2319…2925 other 113 markets active 1h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$43 (-0%) realized −$43 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate9%10W / 100L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$313per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$283now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% −$24
politics 16% −$6
sports 7% −$12
economics 6% −$2
world 2% −$1
culture 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 16 -0.1% -9.6% 6% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 109 -1.5% -10.9% 9% 6% -9.6%
all 110 -1.5% -10.9% 9% 6% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 6% -9.6%
10% -19.4% 6% -18.3%
15% -27.2% 5% -26.2%
20% -34.3% 4% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×5.08 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$283
Realized−$43
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses10 / 100
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)110 / 113
History coverage92d
Avg bet$313
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 110 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $198 $198 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $74 $74 −$0 (-0%)
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 60¢ 58¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 18 $100 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $353 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $47 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $98 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $97 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 11 $362 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $35 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $66 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $51 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $55 $0 -0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 03 $64 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in May? Jun 01 $115 $0 +0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $322 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $66 $0 -0%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 24 $54 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 23 $618 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 17 $569 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 17 $279 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $566 −$1 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 15 $594 −$1 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $287 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $1,133 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $563 −$1 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $824 −$1 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 09 $302 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 08 $297 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $832 −$1 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 06 $545 −$1 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $284 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $589 −$1 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $303 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $564 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $300 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in April? May 01 $16 $0 +0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $276 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 29 $299 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 28 $932 −$1 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $294 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 25 $298 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $563 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 24 $867 −$1 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $927 −$1 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 18 $304 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $296 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 16 $601 −$1 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $594 −$1 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $569 −$1 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 14 $281 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Apr 14 $284 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $566 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $74 1h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 60¢ $12 5h
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $50 7h
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $50 10h
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $61 26h
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $61 30h
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $47 42h
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $47 45h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $43 3d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $43 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $198 4d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $97 6d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $51 6d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $46 6d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $57 7d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $57 7d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $55 7d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $55 8d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $34 8d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $35 9d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $66 12d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $66 12d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $51 14d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $51 14d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $55 14d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $55 14d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $64 15d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $64 16d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $50 16d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $50 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $282.69 · official $282.69 (match) · 340 history records