Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:21:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
23 0x2319…c571 sports 66 markets active 1h ago coverage 95d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$157 (-38%) realized −$157 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -51% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -56% what you keep after slip
Net edge-56%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate15%10W / 55L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$42
7 days−$42
14 days−$42
30 days−$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% −$67
other 31% −$82
economics 2% $0
tech 2% −$2
world 2% −$5
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-55.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -87.5% -88.7% 0% 0% -88.7%
≤30d 1 -87.5% -88.7% 0% 0% -88.7%
≤90d 26 -78.1% -80.2% 8% 4% -84.3%
all 65 -51.2% -55.8% 15% 8% -44.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -55.8% 8% -44.9%
10% -60.1% 6% -50.2%
15% -63.9% 6% -55.0%
20% -67.5% 5% -59.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 76% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -83% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -51% · $-wt -39% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -31% → late -70% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

95d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$157
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses10 / 55
Open positions1
Markets (closed)65 / 66
History coverage95d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 65 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $48 −$42 -88%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Mar 28 $5 −$5 -87%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Mar 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Mar 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Mar 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Mar 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Mar 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Mar 27 $1 +$1 +57%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Mar 27 $4 −$3 -87%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Mar 27 $2 −$1 -33%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Mar 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Mar 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Alicante: Jan Choinski vs Tiago Pereira Mar 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 24 $1 $0 +6%
LoL: French Flair vs G2 NORD (BO3) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Mar 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Penn Quakers vs. Illinois Fighting Illini Mar 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Kennesaw State Owls vs. Gonzaga Bulldogs Mar 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Siena Saints vs. Duke Blue Devils Mar 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Idaho Vandals vs. Houston Cougars Mar 20 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs LYON (BO5) - First Stand Group B Mar 19 $5 −$3 -72%
Will Fatih Karagümrük SK win on 2026-03-19? Mar 19 $1 $0 -16%
Dota 2: Team Essence vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Seri Mar 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors vs. Arkansas Razorbacks Mar 19 $5 −$1 -10%
Warriors vs. Celtics Mar 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Thunder vs. Nets Mar 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs GLYPH (BO3) - EPL World Series Sout Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
T20 Series New Zealand vs South Africa: New Zealand vs South Africa Mar 17 $28 −$21 -74%
T20I Series New Zealand vs South Africa, Women: New Zealand vs South A Mar 16 $12 $0 -3%
Pistons vs. Wizards Mar 16 $12 $0 +2%
Spurs vs. Kings Mar 16 $10 $0 +4%
National T20 Cup: Abbottabad Region vs Lahore Region Blues Mar 16 $23 −$22 -98%
Knicks vs. Nets Mar 16 $2 −$1 -27%
ODI Series Malaysia vs Bahrain: Malaysia vs Bahrain Mar 16 $57 +$10 +18%
Zadar: Andrej Nedic vs Emanuel Ivanisevic Mar 16 $3 $0 +0%
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Americas Qualifier B: Argentina vs Cayman Mar 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Qingdao Hainiu FC win on 2026-03-15? Mar 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will Clube do Remo win on 2026-03-15? Mar 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Mirassol FC win on 2026-03-15? Mar 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Sharks vs. Senators Mar 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Warriors vs. Knicks Mar 16 $5 −$2 -38%
Pistons vs. Wizards Mar 15 $5 −$1 -18%
Mavericks vs. Cavaliers Mar 15 $2 +$22 +899%
Timberwolves vs. Thunder Mar 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Honor of Kings: LGD NBW vs Talent Gaming (BO5) - King Pro League Stage Mar 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: AaB esport vs Sashi Esport (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Pla Mar 15 $1 −$1 -100%
National Cricket League, Women: Western Australia vs ACT Meteors - Com Mar 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Rainbow Six Siege: VITE vs Can You Be My Enemy (BO3) - Asia-Pacific Le Mar 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: AaB esport vs Sashi Esport - Map 1 Winner Mar 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Heracles Almelo win on 2026-03-15? Mar 15 $4 −$4 -91%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $6 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 3¢ $6 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 20¢ $46 2h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? BUY No 10¢ $2 81d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $2 81d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? BUY No 11¢ $1 81d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? SELL No 10¢ $1 81d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 81d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? BUY No 58¢ $1 81d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 81d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? BUY No 28¢ $2 81d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 81d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 81d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 81d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 81d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 81d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 81d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 81d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 81d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 81d
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 82d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 82d
Alicante: Jan Choinski vs Tiago Pereira BUY Tiago Pereira 1¢ $1 84d
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 84d
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 84d
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 84d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 84d
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 84d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.43 · official $6.43 (match) · 205 history records