Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:15:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
23 0x2317…a47c crypto 18 markets active 2d ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$676 (-33%) realized −$676 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -50% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -61% what you keep after slip
Net edge-61%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate28%5W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$114per market
Trades / day21.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$756
politics 1% −$15
world 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-54.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -49.7% -54.5% 28% 28% -44.2%
≤30d 18 -49.7% -54.5% 28% 28% -44.2%
≤90d 18 -49.7% -54.5% 28% 28% -44.2%
all 18 -49.7% -54.5% 28% 28% -44.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -54.5% 28% -44.2%
10% ← realistic here -58.8% 28% -49.6%
15% -62.8% 17% -54.4%
20% -66.5% 11% -58.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 70% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -38% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -50% · $-wt -38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -38% → late -61% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$65 vs −$85 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$676
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses5 / 13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)18 / 18
History coverage4d
Avg bet$114
Trades / day21.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 18 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 12 $164 −$156 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $115 −$110 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 12 $156 −$156 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 12 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 12 $289 −$73 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 12 $157 +$65 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 11 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 11 $25 +$8 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 11 $210 −$175 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 11 $265 −$178 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 11 $79 −$75 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 11 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 11 $189 +$163 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 11 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 11 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 11 $53 +$51 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 11 $159 +$39 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 4¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $12 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $105 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 33¢ $115 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $27 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $27 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET SELL Up 21¢ $211 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET SELL Up 15¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $27 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $27 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $26 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 100 history records