Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:08:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
23 0x2317…d227 sports 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 622d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$133 (+3%) realized +$133 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate32%12W / 26L
Drawdown92%max
Avg bet$116per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$902now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% −$6
politics 20% −$3
sports 11% +$141
crypto 2% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 38 -8.1% -16.9% 32% 13% -6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.9% 13% -6.3%
10% -24.8% 13% -15.3%
15% -32.1% 13% -23.5%
20% -38.7% 13% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 74% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$6 · ×4.02 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.86 per $1 lost it wins $1.86
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

622d coverage
Net worth$902
Realized+$133
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses12 / 26
Open positions2
Markets (closed)38 / 40
History coverage622d
Avg bet$116
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown92%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $552 $552 −$0 (-0%)
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $350 $350 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $442 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $577 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $1,025 −$1 -0%
Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 17 $1,019 −$1 -0%
Chargers vs. Raiders Sep 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Tigers vs. White Sox Sep 11 $7 +$6 +79%
Will XRP reach $4.0 in June? Jul 15 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 13 $5 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in May? May 12 $4 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? May 08 $5 $0 -1%
Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election? May 07 $4 $0 -1%
Will Elon tweet 725-749 times March 7-14? May 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Fulham wins the Premier League? May 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in May? May 06 $5 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? May 05 $6 $0 -1%
Will France win Eurovision 2025? May 02 $5 $0 -2%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? Apr 30 $5 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 28 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $8 $0 -4%
Will Hong Joon-pyo be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 27 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $5 $0 -0%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 17 $2 $0 -1%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $5 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? Apr 07 $4 $0 -7%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 03 $9 $0 -0%
Will Arsenal lead the EPL in points at midway point? Jan 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bruins vs. Rangers Jan 03 $102 +$102 +100%
Will Ethereum hit $10k in 2024? Jan 02 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin hit $250k in 2024? Jan 02 $21 $0 +0%
Tether Insolvent in 2024? Jan 02 $23 $0 +0%
Will Milady flip BAYC in 2024? Jan 02 $26 $0 +0%
Will Berachain launch in 2024? Jan 02 $27 $0 +0%
Timberwolves vs. Rockets Dec 30 $101 +$111 +110%
Heat vs. Magic Dec 27 $114 −$114 -100%
Will there be 165,000,000-170,000,000 votes cast in the U.S. President Dec 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Mavericks Dec 04 $19 −$19 -100%
WNBA: Lynx vs. Sun Series Winner Oct 16 $71 +$42 +59%
WNBA: Liberty vs. Aces Game 3 Oct 07 $43 +$28 +64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $350 1h
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $552 1h
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $442 1h
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $576 1h
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $442 4h
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $577 4h
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,024 4h
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,025 16h
Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,018 16h
Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,019 23h
Chargers vs. Raiders BUY Raiders 38¢ $10 275d
Tigers vs. White Sox BUY Tigers 56¢ $7 308d
Will XRP reach $4.0 in June? BUY No 100¢ $3 359d
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2025 Stanley Cup? SELL No 99¢ $5 400d
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2025 Stanley Cup? BUY No 99¢ $5 400d
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in May? SELL No 68¢ $4 401d
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in May? BUY No 69¢ $4 402d
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? SELL No 98¢ $5 405d
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? BUY No 99¢ $5 406d
Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election? SELL Yes 71¢ $4 406d
Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election? BUY Yes 72¢ $4 407d
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $5 407d
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $5 408d
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? SELL No 98¢ $6 408d
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? BUY No 98¢ $6 409d
Will France win Eurovision 2025? SELL No 92¢ $5 411d
Will France win Eurovision 2025? BUY No 94¢ $5 412d
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? SELL No 94¢ $5 413d
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? BUY No 94¢ $5 414d
Will Ahn Cheol-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? SELL No 99¢ $5 415d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $901.55 · official $901.55 (match) · 85 history records