Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:16:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
23 0x2313…4379 other 68 markets active 1h ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$272 (+6%) realized +$274 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate39%25W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day11.9pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$65now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$243
7 days−$23
14 days−$27
30 days−$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 72% −$319
sports 25% +$301
crypto 2% +$4
world 0% −$12
politics 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-30.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 57 -19.4% -27.0% 42% 33% +1.8%
≤30d 64 -23.0% -30.3% 39% 31% +1.6%
≤90d 64 -23.0% -30.3% 39% 31% +1.6%
all 64 -23.0% -30.3% 39% 31% +1.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.3% 31% +1.6%
10% -37.0% 20% -8.1%
15% -43.1% 14% -17.0%
20% -48.6% 12% -25.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -35% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$17 · ×1.49 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$65
Realized+$274
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses25 / 39
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions4
Markets (closed)64 / 68
History coverage20d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day11.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 64 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 68¢ 64¢ $44 $42 −$2 (-5%)
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 22¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+2%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Yes 12¢ 14¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+12%)
Trump out as President by June 30? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-73%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $85 +$24 +28%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $8 −$4 -53%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $374 −$282 -75%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $372 +$10 +3%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $282 +$59 +21%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $51 +$5 +10%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $41 −$6 -14%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $404 +$65 +16%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $3 −$2 -53%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $250 −$10 -4%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $4 −$3 -85%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 23 $6 −$6 -90%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $257 +$27 +11%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $46 −$26 -56%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $20 −$15 -76%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $236 +$37 +16%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $56 −$38 -67%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $115 −$103 -90%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $41 −$40 -97%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $61 −$53 -87%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $390 +$117 +30%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $212 +$25 +12%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $243 +$142 +59%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 −$41 -81%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $19 −$12 -63%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $161 +$23 +14%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $158 +$96 +61%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $10 $0 -1%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 −$5 -5%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 −$9 -91%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$1 -8%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -96%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $74 +$4 +5%
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Jun 20 $2 $0 -14%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $6 +$6 +93%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $3 $0 +7%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1 $0 -4%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1 $0 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $2 +$1 +48%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $3 $0 -12%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 $0 -47%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -88%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $2 +$1 +30%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 19 $1 $0 -11%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 18 $1 $0 -6%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -96%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -94%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $6 −$4 -70%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2 +$1 +56%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 18 $1 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $44 1h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $14 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 12¢ $8 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $108 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 89¢ $4 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 2¢ $4 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 77¢ $81 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 19¢ $74 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 20¢ $7 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 4¢ $8 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 81¢ $8 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $374 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $374 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 97¢ $185 6h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL No 4¢ $7 6h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $5 10h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $3 10h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 15¢ $28 11h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $151 11h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $342 18h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 18h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 94¢ $180 18h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 18h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $9 18h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 51¢ $0 18h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 18h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 46¢ $51 18h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 50¢ $16 18h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 19h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 40¢ $35 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $65.34 · official $66.65 · 237 history records