Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T01:54:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

23
0x2312…9f3c
other · 39 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$4 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$3 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Net worth$34
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses18 / 20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)38 / 39
History coverage460d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%
Chart Positions 1 History 38 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 42¢ 42¢ $35 $34 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $42 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $18 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $4 $0 +5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 10 $41 +$1 +3%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $2 $0 -9%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Jun 26 $7 −$1 -14%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? May 21 $2 $0 +3%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on June 30? May 19 $7 $0 +1%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the Eastern Conference? May 17 $11 −$4 -36%
Will Cavaliers vs. Warriors be the 2025 NBA Finals matchup? May 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will Luís Montenegro be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the May 11 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Alliance for a Great Albania win the most seats in the next A May 11 $1 $0 -12%
Will Thunderbolts be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? May 10 $11 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down this week? May 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will Péter Erdő be the next pope? May 09 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Another team win the UEFA Europa League? May 08 $10 $0 -1%
Will Pedro Nuno Santos be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after th May 07 $3 $0 -2%
Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? May 07 $17 $0 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $101000 and $103000 on May 9? May 07 $8 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1500 on May 9? May 06 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in Ontario in the next Canad May 06 $9 +$1 +8%
Will Matteo Zuppi be the next pope? Apr 27 $6 $0 -2%
Will the Conservative Party win by 50 or more seats? Apr 27 $10 $0 +3%
Will Ethereum reach $2200 in April? Apr 26 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in Prince Edward Island Apr 26 $19 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $10 $0 -0%
No Trump announcement of next Fed Chair by June 30? Apr 24 $9 $0 +0%
Will Mark Carney lose his seat? Apr 23 $9 $0 +1%
Will Marcela-Lavinia Șandru advance to the Romanian Presidential Elect Apr 22 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Colts draft Shedeur Sanders in the 2025 NFL Draft? Apr 21 $10 $0 +0%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Minnesota Vikings? Apr 20 $7 $0 -0%
Trump x Xi talk by Friday? Apr 20 $9 $0 +2%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the Western Conference? Mar 28 $7 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $79000 and $81000 on Mar 21? Mar 22 $11 +$1 +5%
Will Elon tweet 400-424 times March 14-21? Mar 20 $13 −$2 -16%
Will 'Black Bag' gross between 5-7m on opening weekend? Mar 16 $14 $0 +1%
Greens win over 15% of vote in German election? Mar 15 $13 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 36% +$1
other 25% −$5
politics 13% $0
crypto 13% +$1
sports 7% $0
culture 2% $0
economics 2% $0
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $35 1h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $42 13h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $42 16h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $18 21h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $18 22h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 22¢ $5 36h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 21¢ $4 40h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL No 38¢ $42 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY No 37¢ $41 3d
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 90¢ $2 178d
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? SELL No 82¢ $6 352d
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 99¢ $2 374d
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? BUY No 95¢ $7 390d
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on June 30? SELL No 93¢ $7 390d
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on June 30? BUY No 92¢ $7 392d
Will the Indiana Pacers win the Eastern Conference? SELL No 58¢ $7 392d
Will the Indiana Pacers win the Eastern Conference? BUY No 91¢ $11 398d
Will Cavaliers vs. Warriors be the 2025 NBA Finals matchup? SELL No 99¢ $10 398d
Will Cavaliers vs. Warriors be the 2025 NBA Finals matchup? BUY No 99¢ $10 398d
Will Luís Montenegro be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the SELL Yes 95¢ $9 398d
Will the Alliance for a Great Albania win the most seats in the next A SELL Yes $1 398d
Will Luís Montenegro be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the BUY Yes 95¢ $10 398d
Will the Alliance for a Great Albania win the most seats in the next A BUY Yes $0 398d
Will the Alliance for a Great Albania win the most seats in the next A BUY Yes $1 398d
Will Thunderbolts be the top grossing movie of 2025? SELL No 99¢ $11 399d
Will Thunderbolts be the top grossing movie of 2025? BUY No 99¢ $11 399d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? SELL No 98¢ $11 399d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? BUY No 98¢ $11 399d
Bitcoin Up or Down this week? SELL Up 99¢ $11 399d
Bitcoin Up or Down this week? BUY Up 99¢ $11 400d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +1.9% -7.8% 100% 0% -8.3%
≤30d 4 +1.9% -7.8% 100% 0% -8.3%
≤90d 4 +1.9% -7.8% 100% 0% -8.3%
all 38 -1.4% -10.8% 47% 0% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 0% -10.2%
10% -19.3% 0% -18.8%
15% -27.1% 0% -26.7%
20% -34.3% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.45 · official $34.45 (match) · 89 history records