Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T19:08:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
23 0x230e…89ae other 182 markets active 17h ago coverage 213d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$259 (+7%) realized +$259 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate42%76W / 106L
Drawdown51%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$100
7 days+$64
14 days+$64
30 days+$64
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% +$41
crypto 27% +$189
other 21% −$22
world 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 106 -8.2% -16.9% 31% 18% -5.6%
≤30d 106 -8.2% -16.9% 31% 18% -5.6%
≤90d 177 -5.2% -14.2% 41% 31% -4.1%
all 182 -5.2% -14.2% 42% 31% -4.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 31% -4.8%
10% -22.4% 26% -13.9%
15% -29.9% 21% -22.2%
20% -36.8% 16% -29.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$6 · ×1.89 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.35 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

213d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$259
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses76 / 106
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)182 / 182
History coverage213d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown51%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 182 Trades
no open positions (22 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 $0 -16%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 $0 -12%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 $0 -8%
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 $0 -8%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 $0 -8%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 −$1 -28%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 −$1 -18%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 $0 -14%
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 $0 -14%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 $0 -13%
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 $0 -11%
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 $0 -11%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 16 $3 $0 -8%
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? Jun 16 $5 −$1 -12%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $5 $0 -8%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 16 $5 $0 -5%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $5 $0 -4%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 16 $5 $0 -4%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 $0 -2%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $6 −$2 -25%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 16 $6 $0 -5%
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Jun 16 $10 −$1 -11%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 16 $10 −$1 -6%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 16 $10 $0 -5%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $10 $0 -4%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 16 $10 $0 -3%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 16 $10 −$1 -5%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 16 $10 $0 -4%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 16 $10 $0 -2%
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 16 $10 $0 -2%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 16 $11 $0 -4%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 16 $11 $0 -2%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 16 $12 −$1 -8%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 −$1 -4%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 16 $20 −$1 -3%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $18 $0 -1%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $10 $0 -2%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 16 $7 $0 -1%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 16 $5 $0 -2%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 16 $5 $0 -3%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 16 $7 $0 -2%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 16 $10 $0 -2%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 $0 -2%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $11 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $146 +$98 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 16 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 16 $133 +$15 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $19 −$18 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 +$11 +344%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Jun 16 $3 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 23¢ $2 17h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? SELL Yes 25¢ $2 17h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes 23¢ $2 17h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 25¢ $2 17h
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? SELL Yes 26¢ $2 17h
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 22¢ $2 17h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 25¢ $3 17h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 26¢ $3 17h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $3 17h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 30¢ $3 17h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? SELL Yes 27¢ $3 17h
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $3 17h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 27¢ $3 17h
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? SELL No 24¢ $5 17h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 43¢ $5 17h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 44¢ $5 17h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 56¢ $5 17h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 65¢ $5 17h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 81¢ $5 17h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 41¢ $5 17h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 52¢ $6 17h
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? SELL No 28¢ $9 17h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 68¢ $9 17h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 66¢ $10 17h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 72¢ $10 17h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 88¢ $10 17h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 44¢ $10 17h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 62¢ $10 17h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 79¢ $10 17h
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 79¢ $10 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 467 history records