Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T12:26:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

23
0x230e…45b4
crypto · 1124 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$651 -9%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$651 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$651
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses499 / 824
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1323 / 1124
History coverage24d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day125.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 0 History 1323 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$655
7 days−$732
14 days−$637
30 days−$651
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Down 63¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+58%)
Solana Up or Down - April 14, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Up 71¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - April 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Down 77¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Up 29¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Down 78¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Up 97¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Up 42¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - April 11, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Up 67¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - May 21, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Up 57¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Stars vs. Wild Wild 53¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Down 45¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - April 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Down 78¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - April 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Down 76¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Down 36¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Up 58¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Up 30¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Down 34¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Up 27¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Down 36¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Down 45¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Down 10¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Up 33¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Up 28¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - April 14, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 13 $0 −$2 -2983%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 11, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Stars vs. Wild Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 13 $0 −$5 -7792%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$5 -195%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 13 $0 −$2 -3564%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 13 $0 −$2 -3355%
XRP Up or Down - April 11, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 11, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 13 $0 −$6 -5855%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 13 $0 −$1 -1705%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 19, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 11, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 11, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 11, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 13 $0 +$3 +4812%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 14, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 13 $0 −$4 -8097%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 13 $0 −$3 -5959%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 13, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 10, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 13 $0 −$3 -4150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 13 $0 −$5 -9868%
Solana Up or Down - April 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 13 $0 −$1 -833%
Solana Up or Down - April 11, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 12, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 98% +$46
other 1% −$4
sports 1% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $3 35m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $3 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Down 15¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Down 16¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET SELL Down 14¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET SELL Down 12¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET SELL Up 9¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+3.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 465 -28.9% -35.7% 24% 23% -38.4%
≤30d 1323 +14.2% +3.3% 38% 36% -7.6%
≤90d 1323 +14.2% +3.3% 38% 36% -7.6%
all 1323 +14.2% +3.3% 38% 36% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover125.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +3.3% 36% -7.6%
10% ← realistic here -6.6% 33% -16.4%
15% -15.6% 31% -24.5%
20% -23.9% 29% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.20 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records