Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T18:04:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0x230b…1bf0

weather · 3 markets active 2h ago

0.5score

−$4 -53%

TOTAL PnL · realized −$4 · open +$0

avoidriskycopy

✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ Small sample

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Net worth$3

Realized−$4

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)0%

Wins / losses0 / 2

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions1

Markets (closed)2 / 3

History coverage52d

Avg bet$3

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit100%

Chart Positions 1 History 2 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days$0

7 days$0

14 days$0

30 days$0

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5	Under	59¢	58¢	$3	$3	−$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on April 22?	Yes	44¢	0¢	$3	$0	−$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on April 22?	Yes	16¢	0¢	$2	$0	−$2 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on April 22?	Apr 22	$3	−$3	-97%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on April 22?	Apr 21	$2	−$2	-96%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

weather 61% −$4

sports 39% $0

Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	59¢	$3	1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on April 22?	BUY Yes	44¢	$3	51d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on April 22?	BUY Yes	16¢	$2	52d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-100.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	no closed markets
≤90d	2	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%
all	2	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%
10%	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%
15%	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%
20%	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.92 · official $2.92 (match) · 3 history records