Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:21:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
23 0x2308…2542 crypto 101 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (51 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$183 (+5%) realized +$183 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate85%86W / 15L
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day50.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$157
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (51 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-5.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 101 +4.5% -5.4% 85% 44% -5.4%
≤30d 101 +4.5% -5.4% 85% 44% -5.4%
≤90d 101 +4.5% -5.4% 85% 44% -5.4%
all 101 +4.5% -5.4% 85% 44% -5.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover50.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.4% 44% -5.4%
10% ← realistic here -14.5% 19% -14.5%
15% -22.7% 9% -22.8%
20% -30.3% 5% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$20 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.54 per $1 lost it wins $1.54
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$183
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses86 / 15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)101 / 101
History coverage4d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day50.6
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 101 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$3 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$12 +46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $25 −$19 -76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $30 +$2 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 17 $101 +$5 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $75 +$6 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 17 $30 +$4 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$2 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 16 $76 +$8 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $76 −$13 -17%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 16 $30 +$6 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$2 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $76 +$12 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 16 $55 −$30 -54%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 16 $50 +$5 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $82 −$72 -88%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 16 $81 +$4 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 16 $35 +$4 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $75 +$7 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$2 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 16 $30 +$5 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 16 $50 +$3 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 16 $25 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$3 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $56 +$24 +43%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $51 −$10 -19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 16 $50 +$6 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $25 −$25 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $82 +$10 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $76 +$13 +17%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$15 +57%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $31 +$8 +27%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$11 +44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $25 +$4 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$2 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$6 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $102 +$9 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 15 $51 +$8 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 15 $30 +$2 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$3 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 15 $76 +$22 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 15 $25 −$25 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $76 +$19 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $25 48m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $25 54m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Up 20¢ $6 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $25 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $25 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $25 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET SELL Up 21¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $50 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $25 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET SELL Down 69¢ $20 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $25 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $50 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $25 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $25 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $6 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $25 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $50 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $25 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $50 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Down 28¢ $10 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $26 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $25 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $25 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $25 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $51 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 352 history records