Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T15:42:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
23 0x2305…04f2 crypto 236 markets active 0h ago coverage 52d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,804 (+16%) realized +$1,899 · open −$95
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%129W / 96L
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day12.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$1,120now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,360
7 days+$1,616
14 days+$1,217
30 days+$1,515
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% +$349
tech 7% +$973
other 1% +$205
sports 1% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+2.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +140.7% +117.8% 60% 60% +208.1%
≤30d 124 +16.3% +5.2% 55% 54% +9.3%
≤90d 225 +13.3% +2.5% 57% 57% +5.4%
all 225 +13.3% +2.5% 57% 57% +5.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.5% 57% +5.4%
10% -7.3% 56% -4.7%
15% -16.3% 54% -13.9%
20% -24.5% 53% -22.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late +15% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$46 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.37 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$1,120
Realized+$1,899
Unrealized−$95
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses129 / 96
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions11
Markets (closed)225 / 236
History coverage52d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day12.5
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 225 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Yes 6¢ 14¢ $172 $389 +$217 (+127%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,550 on June 24? Yes 3¢ 6¢ $100 $217 +$117 (+117%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 on June 24? Yes 8¢ 36¢ $38 $169 +$131 (+350%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $205 $104 −$102 (-49%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Yes 5¢ 2¢ $212 $87 −$125 (-59%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Yes 8¢ 4¢ $141 $74 −$66 (-47%)
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 24? Down 8¢ 4¢ $80 $35 −$45 (-56%)
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 24? Up 1¢ 0¢ $191 $17 −$173 (-91%)
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $272 in June? Yes 14¢ 6¢ $35 $14 −$21 (-61%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11AM ET Up 11¢ 4¢ $41 $13 −$28 (-68%)
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $280 in June? Yes 15¢ 11¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 92 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $107 +$548 +513%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $159 +$424 +266%
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 23? Jun 23 $103 +$388 +375%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 21 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 21 $123 +$67 +54%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $40 +$173 +434%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $58 +$96 +164%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $17 −$17 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $14 −$14 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $22 −$21 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $94 −$91 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $62 −$60 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $62 −$60 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 13 $159 −$156 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $63 −$60 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 11 $122 +$88 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 10 $62 −$60 -97%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 10 $62 +$60 +97%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $55 −$53 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 10 $62 +$50 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 10 $154 −$151 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 10 $31 +$24 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 09 $122 +$87 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 09 $155 −$151 -98%
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $288 in June? Jun 09 $42 +$108 +260%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 09 $63 +$39 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 09 $154 −$151 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 09 $63 −$60 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 09 $154 −$151 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 08 $123 +$89 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 08 $4 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 08 $406 +$316 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 08 $123 +$93 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 07 $154 −$151 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 07 $163 −$160 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 07 $94 +$72 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 07 $62 −$60 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 07 $63 −$60 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 07 $62 −$26 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 06 $31 +$24 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 06 $45 −$43 -96%
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $375 in June? Jun 05 $31 +$24 +76%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $200 in June? Jun 05 $36 +$51 +140%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $208 in June? Jun 05 $51 +$49 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 05 $125 +$108 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 05 $31 +$24 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $84 −$79 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $131 −$126 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 05 $31 +$25 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $17 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $27 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 24? BUY Up 0¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 24? BUY Up 0¢ $6 11m
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 24? BUY Down 6¢ $30 18m
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 24? BUY Down 10¢ $52 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 24? BUY Up 1¢ $51 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 24? BUY Up 1¢ $26 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 24? BUY Up 1¢ $13 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 24? BUY Up 3¢ $107 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 24? SELL Yes 25¢ $157 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 24? SELL Yes 30¢ $34 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 24? SELL Yes 26¢ $65 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 24? SELL Yes 27¢ $90 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 on June 24? SELL Yes 30¢ $47 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 24? SELL Yes 60¢ $18 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 24? SELL Yes 60¢ $3 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 24? SELL Yes 60¢ $2 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 24? SELL Yes 60¢ $60 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 24? SELL Yes 23¢ $102 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 24? SELL Yes 70¢ $6 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 24? SELL Yes 70¢ $91 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 24? SELL Yes 59¢ $66 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 24? SELL Yes 50¢ $88 2h
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 24? SELL Yes 45¢ $59 2h
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 24? SELL Yes 16¢ $95 2h
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 24? SELL Yes 14¢ $111 2h
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 24? SELL Yes 28¢ $190 2h
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 8¢ $53 2h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 on June 24? BUY Yes 8¢ $53 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,120.16 · official $1,120.43 (match) · 756 history records