Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:08:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
23 0x2304…5f25 crypto 484 markets active 2h ago coverage 11d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (70 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$966 (+2%) realized +$966 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate94%456W / 28L
Drawdown65%max
Avg bet$81per market
Trades / day70.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$263
7 days+$888
14 days+$839
30 days+$839
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$839
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (70 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 189 +4.3% -5.6% 98% 4% -5.4%
≤30d 484 +0.9% -8.7% 94% 6% -7.6%
≤90d 484 +0.9% -8.7% 94% 6% -7.6%
all 484 +0.9% -8.7% 94% 6% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover70.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.7% 6% -7.6%
10% ← realistic here -17.4% 0% -16.4%
15% -25.4% 0% -24.5%
20% -32.7% 0% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$60 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.5 per $1 lost it wins $1.5
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$966
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses456 / 28
Open positions0
Markets (closed)484 / 484
History coverage11d
Avg bet$81
Trades / day70.4
Drawdown65%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 484 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 17 $168 +$5 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 17 $201 +$16 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 17 $199 +$21 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $201 +$21 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 17 $134 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 17 $153 +$7 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $172 +$14 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $201 +$10 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 17 $109 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 17 $43 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $87 +$6 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $73 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 17 $179 +$8 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $201 +$5 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 16 $64 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 16 $91 +$7 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 16 $201 +$5 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 16 $201 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 16 $62 +$5 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $70 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $104 +$17 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 16 $201 +$10 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 16 $29 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 16 $112 +$9 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $201 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $189 +$7 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 16 $200 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 16 $11 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 16 $68 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $137 +$7 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $190 +$9 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $82 +$5 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $201 +$10 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $153 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $99 +$10 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $35 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $24 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 15 $89 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 15 $61 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $69 +$4 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $86 +$9 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $11 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $58 +$5 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $148 +$5 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $45 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $116 +$9 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $201 +$21 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 15 $201 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $91 +$5 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 15 $154 +$9 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $168 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $201 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $199 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $201 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $134 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $153 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $172 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $19 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $106 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $11 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $12 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $52 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $4 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $70 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $43 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $87 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $73 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $179 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $32 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $60 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $33 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $65 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $64 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $91 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $49 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1263 history records