Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T21:33:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

23
0x2302…5789
other · 24 markets active 1h ago
2.5score
+$3 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$3 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ Small sample
Net worth$37
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses12 / 11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)23 / 24
History coverage461d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit54%
Chart Positions 1 History 23 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? No 97¢ 97¢ $37 $37 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $34 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $33 +$1 +2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $5 $0 -1%
Will Rumble buy TikTok? Dec 14 $14 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Dec 14 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 9-12%? Jun 24 $13 $0 +4%
Will Mikal Bridges Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will another country be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand F May 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $93000 and $95000 on May 9? May 10 $2 $0 +1%
Will Robert Sarah be the next pope? Apr 24 $12 $0 +2%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 25,000-50,000 between Apr 23 $4 $0 +0%
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days? Apr 23 $9 $0 -1%
New Pope in 2025? Apr 23 $13 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2200 in April? Apr 22 $13 $0 -0%
Will Lyon win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 19 $13 +$1 +7%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2025? Apr 04 $14 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon Rudy Giuliani in his first 100 days? Apr 02 $14 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $360b and $370b on March 31? Mar 29 $1 $0 -3%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 28 $14 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 650-674 times March 14-21? Mar 23 $14 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet 650-674 times March 7-14? Mar 15 $14 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 42-43°F on March 11? Mar 12 $14 $0 +1%
Did Kanye sell his twitter account? Mar 10 $14 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 38% +$1
world 36% +$1
politics 12% $0
crypto 5% $0
tech 5% $0
weather 5% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $37 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $34 19h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $34 21h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 91¢ $15 32h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 91¢ $19 32h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 89¢ $33 36h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $0 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $5 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $2 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $0 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $2 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? BUY No 99¢ $2 375d
Will Mikal Bridges Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes $0 383d
Will another country be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand F BUY Yes $0 391d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $93000 and $95000 on May 9? BUY No 99¢ $2 401d
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 9-12%? BUY No 96¢ $13 415d
Will Robert Sarah be the next pope? SELL No 96¢ $10 415d
Will Robert Sarah be the next pope? SELL No 96¢ $3 415d
Will Robert Sarah be the next pope? BUY No 94¢ $12 415d
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 25,000-50,000 between SELL No 86¢ $4 416d
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days? SELL No 97¢ $9 416d
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 25,000-50,000 between BUY No 86¢ $4 416d
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days? BUY No 98¢ $9 416d
New Pope in 2025? SELL Yes 99¢ $13 416d
New Pope in 2025? BUY Yes 99¢ $13 416d
Will Ethereum reach $2200 in April? SELL No 96¢ $13 417d
Will Ethereum reach $2200 in April? BUY No 97¢ $13 420d
Will Lyon win the UEFA Europa League? BUY No 93¢ $13 434d
Will Rumble buy TikTok? SELL No 96¢ $13 434d
Will Rumble buy TikTok? BUY No 96¢ $14 435d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.4% -9.1% 33% 0% -8.7%
≤30d 3 +0.4% -9.1% 33% 0% -8.7%
≤90d 3 +0.4% -9.1% 33% 0% -8.7%
all 23 -7.9% -16.7% 52% 0% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.7% 0% -8.6%
10% -24.7% 0% -17.3%
15% -32.0% 0% -25.3%
20% -38.6% 0% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.69 · official $36.69 (match) · 57 history records