trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? | No | 97¢ | 97¢ | $37 | $37 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Jun 13 | $34 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by | Jun 12 | $33 | +$1 | +2% |
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 11 | $5 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Rumble buy TikTok? | Dec 14 | $14 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? | Dec 14 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 9-12%? | Jun 24 | $13 | $0 | +4% |
| Will Mikal Bridges Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? | Jun 12 | $0 | $0 | -100% |
| Will another country be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand F | May 20 | $0 | $0 | -100% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $93000 and $95000 on May 9? | May 10 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Robert Sarah be the next pope? | Apr 24 | $12 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the number of federal employees decrease by 25,000-50,000 between | Apr 23 | $4 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days? | Apr 23 | $9 | $0 | -1% |
| New Pope in 2025? | Apr 23 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Ethereum reach $2200 in April? | Apr 22 | $13 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Lyon win the UEFA Europa League? | Apr 19 | $13 | +$1 | +7% |
| Will Austria win Eurovision 2025? | Apr 04 | $14 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Trump pardon Rudy Giuliani in his first 100 days? | Apr 02 | $14 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $360b and $370b on March 31? | Mar 29 | $1 | $0 | -3% |
| Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Mar 28 | $14 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon tweet 650-674 times March 14-21? | Mar 23 | $14 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Elon tweet 650-674 times March 7-14? | Mar 15 | $14 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the highest temperature in London be between 42-43°F on March 11? | Mar 12 | $14 | $0 | +1% |
| Did Kanye sell his twitter account? | Mar 10 | $14 | $0 | -0% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | +0.4% | -9.1% | 33% | 0% | -8.7% |
| ≤30d | 3 | +0.4% | -9.1% | 33% | 0% | -8.7% |
| ≤90d | 3 | +0.4% | -9.1% | 33% | 0% | -8.7% |
| all | 23 | -7.9% | -16.7% | 52% | 0% | -8.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -16.7% | 0% | -8.6% |
| 10% | -24.7% | 0% | -17.3% |
| 15% | -32.0% | 0% | -25.3% |
| 20% | -38.6% | 0% | -32.6% |