Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:39:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
23 0x2302…00c8 world 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 251d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$2 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate24%8W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$62now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 60% −$2
other 15% −$1
politics 12% $0
crypto 7% $0
sports 4% $0
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.3% -9.8% 40% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 8 +0.3% -9.2% 38% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 8 +0.3% -9.2% 38% 0% -9.7%
all 34 -1.0% -10.4% 24% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 0% -9.8%
10% -19.0% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.8% 0% -26.3%
20% -34.0% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

251d coverage
Net worth$62
Realized−$2
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses8 / 26
Open positions2
Markets (closed)34 / 36
History coverage251d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 90¢ 90¢ $62 $62 −$0 (-1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 96¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $127 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $57 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $64 −$1 -2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $39 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $63 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $58 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 09 $58 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 08 $3 $0 +4%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 09 $22 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Dec 21 $24 $0 -0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $41 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 26 $18 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 26 $28 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $18 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $19 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 20 $16 $0 -1%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 23 $2 $0 -3%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025 Oct 23 $19 −$1 -3%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 by December 31? Oct 22 $19 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by October 31? Oct 22 $1 $0 -24%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 19 $18 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Oct 19 $19 $0 +0%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 18 $19 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5600 in October? Oct 18 $22 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 17 $22 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 17 $9 $0 +0%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Oct 17 $2 $0 -12%
Will Heather Humphreys win the Irish Presidential Election? Oct 17 $28 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 17 $22 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 14 $22 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 11 $19 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 11 $3 $0 +9%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 10 $1 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 10 $23 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $62 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 89¢ $31 42h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $30 43h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $2 43h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 89¢ $38 47h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $39 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $5 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $14 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $43 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $63 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $3 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $50 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $57 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 56¢ $32 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 56¢ $31 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 57¢ $64 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $20 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $19 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $39 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 84¢ $64 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $63 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $63 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $63 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $5 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $5 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $8 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $56 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $64 7d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $27 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $61.76 · official $61.76 (match) · 162 history records