Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:30:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

6.5

score

23 0x2300…53f8 sports 30 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$2,429 (+17%) realized +$3,586 · open −$1,157

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +42% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +19% what you keep after slip

Net edge+19%after slip

Net WR55%break-even

Win rate55%12W / 10L

Whale WR80%big bets

Drawdown45%max

Avg bet$463per market

Trades / day15.7pace

Fees−$116est.

Kalshi-fit67%portable

Net worth$2,447now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +55%

net ROI/market (all)+28.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	22	+42.2%	+28.7%	55%	55%	+12.5%
≤30d	22	+42.2%	+28.7%	55%	55%	+12.5%
≤90d	22	+42.2%	+28.7%	55%	55%	+12.5%
all	22	+42.2%	+28.7%	55%	55%	+12.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover15.7 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to15%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+28.7%	55%	+12.5%
10%	+16.4%	45%	+1.7%
15%	+5.1%	41%	-8.1%
20%	-5.2%	32%	-17.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 20% · top 2 35% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +42% · $-wt +24% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets

Persistence

early +50% → late +35% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$303 vs −$132 · ×2.29 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×2.75 per $1 lost it wins $2.75

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage

Net worth$2,447

Realized+$3,586

Unrealized−$1,157

Win rate (resolved)55%

Wins / losses12 / 10

Whale WR (big bets)80%

Est. fees paid−$116

Open positions4

Markets (closed)22 / 30

History coverage4d

Avg bet$463

Trades / day15.7

Drawdown45%

Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 22 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5	Over	66¢	52¢	$2,000	$1,566	−$434 (-22%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	Yes	63¢	76¢	$345	$413	+$68 (+20%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5	Over	58¢	24¢	$908	$385	−$523 (-58%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5	Over	36¢	8¢	$351	$83	−$267 (-76%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Netherlands vs. Japan: 2nd Half O/U 1.5	Jun 14	$305	+$371	+122%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$204	−$39	-19%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$508	−$27	-5%
Germany leading at halftime?	Jun 14	$1,307	+$242	+18%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5	Jun 14	$204	+$412	+202%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5	Jun 14	$1,516	+$735	+48%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5	Jun 14	$305	+$297	+97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5	Jun 14	$1,005	+$133	+13%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5	Jun 14	$304	+$187	+62%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5	Jun 14	$505	−$500	-99%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5	Jun 14	$305	−$176	-58%
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 0.5	Jun 14	$303	+$144	+48%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$506	−$500	-99%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw?	Jun 13	$31	+$184	+596%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$203	+$205	+101%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$31	−$30	-97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 12	$102	−$6	-6%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5	Jun 12	$51	−$41	-80%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5)	Jun 11	$285	+$202	+71%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5)	Jun 11	$31	−$2	-5%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 11	$31	−$1	-4%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 11	$1,513	+$519	+34%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	63¢	$348	0m
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	65¢	$505	27m
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	64¢	$505	31m
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	63¢	$506	38m
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	75¢	$504	58m
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	48¢	$102	1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	27¢	$102	1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	52¢	$101	1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	52¢	$203	1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	30¢	$31	1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	35¢	$31	1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	58¢	$101	1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	38¢	$31	1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	61¢	$101	1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	41¢	$51	1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	64¢	$101	1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	48¢	$11	1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	70¢	$101	1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	72¢	$109	1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	50¢	$102	1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND	BUY	20¢	$102	11h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 AND Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 AND Will	BUY	24¢	$307	11h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	22¢	$165	20h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	26¢	$204	21h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	45¢	$481	21h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	BUY	8¢	$103	22h
Netherlands vs. Japan: 2nd Half O/U 1.5	BUY Over	44¢	$305	22h
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5	BUY Over	68¢	$505	22h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	46¢	$508	22h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5	SELL Over	84¢	$105	23h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,446.77 · official $2,846.77 · 80 history records