Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T04:26:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
22 0x22ff…383d crypto 168 markets active 0h ago coverage 31d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$338 (+3%) realized +$338 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate51%86W / 82L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day12.7pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$217
7 days−$39
14 days−$55
30 days+$175
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 76% −$780
sports 12% +$934
other 9% +$329
world 3% −$263
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 -0.3% -9.8% 60% 44% -10.0%
≤30d 161 -7.8% -16.6% 51% 45% -7.4%
≤90d 168 -7.9% -16.6% 51% 45% -7.1%
all 168 -7.9% -16.6% 51% 45% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.6% 45% -7.1%
10% -24.6% 36% -16.0%
15% -31.9% 29% -24.1%
20% -38.6% 25% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$47 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$338
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses86 / 82
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)168 / 168
History coverage31d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day12.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 168 Trades
no open positions (23 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $255 −$235 -92%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 18 $20 +$8 +38%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $51 −$51 -100%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $256 −$250 -98%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? Jun 18 $20 +$85 +413%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $220 +$729 +331%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $31 −$9 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $40 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$5 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $20 −$17 -84%
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $41 +$27 +65%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $154 −$153 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $21 +$10 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $20 +$6 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $20 −$11 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $20 +$5 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $20 +$8 +40%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$3 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$3 +14%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $102 +$109 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 13 $20 +$7 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 13 $21 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 13 $20 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 13 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 13 $21 −$12 -56%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $97 +$102 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 13 $20 −$17 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 13 $21 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 13 $20 +$6 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 13 $21 +$14 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 13 $20 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 13 $20 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 13 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 13 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 12 $103 −$75 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 12 $52 −$47 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 12 $103 +$15 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 12 $52 −$27 -53%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? SELL Yes 2¢ $20 28m
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 9¢ $51 47m
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 31¢ $204 48m
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 30¢ $51 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $20 1h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 30¢ $8 1h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 30¢ $18 1h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 30¢ $22 1h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 16¢ $256 1h
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? SELL Yes 100¢ $105 3h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 95¢ $949 3h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 22¢ $220 3h
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $20 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET SELL Down 52¢ $18 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET SELL Down 25¢ $4 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $10 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $21 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $21 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $20 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $40 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $40 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $22 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $20 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $28 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $20 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 395 history records