Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:29:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
22 0x22fe…bf23 crypto 971 markets active 6d ago coverage 754d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$79 (+1%) realized +$79 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate96%931W / 35L
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$23now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days−$5
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% +$87
other 5% −$5
tech 3% $0
politics 2% −$4
finance 1% $0
world 0% $0
sports 0% +$2
economics 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 275 -0.2% -9.7% 97% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 369 -0.3% -9.8% 97% 0% -10.0%
all 966 -0.3% -9.8% 96% 3% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 3% -8.7%
10% -18.4% 2% -17.5%
15% -26.3% 1% -25.5%
20% -33.5% 1% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.55 per $1 lost it wins $2.55
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

754d coverage
Net worth$23
Realized+$79
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses931 / 35
Open positions5
Markets (closed)966 / 971
History coverage754d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 966 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will OpenSea launch a token by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? Yes 94¢ 95¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Opensea FDV above $5B one day after launch? No 96¢ 94¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
StandX FDV above $200M one day after launch? Yes 73¢ 66¢ $4 $3 −$0 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,100 on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be greater than $110 on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $72,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 15? Jun 15 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on June 15? Jun 15 $7 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,100 on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $72,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 13? Jun 13 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on June 13? Jun 13 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $70,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be greater than $1.50 on June 13? Jun 13 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,550 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $6 $0 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $146 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $335 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $765 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $8 $0 +0%
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $660 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $280 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $442.50 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will Amazon (AMZN) close at $270-$275 on the final day of trading of t Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $272 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $6 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $232 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will Meta (META) close at >$670 on the final day of trading of the wee Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at >$240 on the final day of trading of the w Jun 12 $6 $0 +0%
Will Google (GOOGL) close at >$395 on the final day of trading of the Jun 12 $7 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of June 8 above $190? Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of June 8 above $450? Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will Amazon (AMZN) finish week of June 8 above $275? Jun 12 $6 $0 +0%
Will Apple (AAPL) finish week of June 8 above $340? Jun 12 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be greater than $1.50 on June 12? Jun 12 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on June 12? Jun 12 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 12? Jun 12 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on June 12? Jun 12 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $6 $0 +0%
Will Apple (AAPL) close at $330-$335 on the final day of trading of th Jun 12 $0 $0 +0%
Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of June 8 above $390? Jun 12 $0 $0 +1%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.70 on June 11? Jun 11 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $72,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $7 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Solana be greater than $110 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $5 5d
Will the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $5 5d
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $5 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,100 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $5 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,100 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $5 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $5 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $5 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $72,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $5 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $72,000 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $5 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $70,000 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $5 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $5 5d
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $7 5d
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $5 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $6 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $6 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $5 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $5 5d
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $335 Week of June 8 2026? BUY No 99¢ $5 5d
Will Meta (META) close at >$670 on the final day of trading of the wee BUY No 100¢ $10 5d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at >$240 on the final day of trading of the w BUY No 100¢ $6 5d
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $280 Week of June 8 2026? BUY No 99¢ $5 5d
Will Amazon (AMZN) close at $270-$275 on the final day of trading of t BUY No 100¢ $5 5d
Will Apple (AAPL) close at $330-$335 on the final day of trading of th BUY No 100¢ $0 5d
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $660 Week of June 8 2026? BUY No 100¢ $5 5d
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $442.50 Week of June 8 2026? BUY No 100¢ $5 5d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $232 Week of June 8 2026? BUY No 100¢ $5 5d
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $272 Week of June 8 2026? BUY No 100¢ $6 5d
Will Google (GOOGL) close at >$395 on the final day of trading of the BUY No 100¢ $7 5d
Will Apple (AAPL) finish week of June 8 above $340? BUY No 100¢ $6 5d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,550 Week of June 8 2026? BUY No 99¢ $6 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23.38 · official $22.72 (match) · 2265 history records