Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:42:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
22 0x22fc…0c3e crypto 1183 markets active 1h ago coverage 48d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (53 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$219 (-2%) realized −$219 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate44%522W / 661L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day53.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$27
14 days−$117
30 days−$640
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$492
other 9% −$128
sports 1% +$28
world 0% −$1
politics 0% −$1
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (53 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 99 -23.8% -31.0% 44% 22% -11.6%
≤30d 855 -10.8% -19.3% 43% 36% -17.1%
≤90d 1183 -7.2% -16.0% 44% 37% -14.7%
all 1183 -7.2% -16.0% 44% 37% -14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover53.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.0% 37% -14.7%
10% ← realistic here -24.1% 31% -22.9%
15% -31.4% 25% -30.3%
20% -38.1% 19% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$219
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses522 / 661
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1183 / 1183
History coverage48d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day53.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1183 Trades
no open positions (30 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $105 +$10 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $17 +$3 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $77 +$8 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $19 −$4 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $13 −$3 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -94%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $11 −$4 -37%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $11 −$3 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $106 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $15 −$5 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 14 $9 −$5 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 14 $13 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +75%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $13 +$37 +276%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 13 $9 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 13 $8 −$3 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 13 $14 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 13 $11 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 13 $12 +$3 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 13 $14 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 13 $12 −$2 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 13 $7 −$2 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 13 $14 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $12 −$2 -18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2910 history records