Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T18:15:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
22 0x22fb…7388 other 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$190 (+19%) realized +$253 · open −$63
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate50%7W / 7L
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$111now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$203
7 days+$189
14 days+$189
30 days+$189
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% +$182
other 45% −$5
tech 5% −$51
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -8.5% -17.2% 50% 43% +12.8%
≤30d 14 -8.5% -17.2% 50% 43% +12.8%
≤90d 14 -8.5% -17.2% 50% 43% +12.8%
all 14 -8.5% -17.2% 50% 43% +12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.2% 43% +12.8%
10% -25.2% 43% +2.0%
15% -32.4% 43% -7.8%
20% -39.0% 29% -16.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 65% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +25% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +25% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -49% → late +32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$19 · ×2.41 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.41 per $1 lost it wins $2.41
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$111
Realized+$253
Unrealized−$63
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses7 / 7
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions9
Markets (closed)14 / 24
History coverage7d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 62¢ 64¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+2%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 11¢ $12 $11 −$1 (-8%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 15¢ $12 $11 −$1 (-10%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 84¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 +$51 +250%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 +$1 +6%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $403 +$143 +35%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $12 +$10 +79%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $15 +$8 +55%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $61 +$69 +114%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $40 −$40 -99%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 13 $41 −$41 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 +$42 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 79¢ $20 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 1h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $20 1h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $20 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 86¢ $40 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $15 5h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $15 5h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 25h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $20 25h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $20 25h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $15 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $15 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-1 BUY 54¢ $51 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $40 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $61 2d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $10 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 27¢ $8 3d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 55¢ $12 4d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $12 4d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $12 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 4d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY Yes 37¢ $41 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? BUY Yes $10 5d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 62¢ $101 5d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 78¢ $171 7d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 78¢ $10 7d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 78¢ $40 7d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 78¢ $81 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $110.91 · official $110.91 (match) · 43 history records