Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T01:14:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
22 0x22fa…8135 crypto 911 markets active 2h ago coverage 262d ⚠
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 261d only
! high turnover
Total PnL +$8,171 (+159%) realized +$8,144 · open +$27
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +58% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +32% what you keep after slip
Net edge+32%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate29%261W / 640L
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day9.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$84now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$134
7 days+$253
14 days+$302
30 days+$756
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 59% +$7,003
other 21% +$502
world 9% +$193
politics 7% +$126
culture 1% −$22
sports 1% −$8
tech 1% −$38
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)+42.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +173.0% +147.0% 44% 41% +65.5%
≤30d 89 +141.1% +118.1% 35% 34% +49.2%
≤90d 161 +69.5% +53.4% 35% 34% +26.4%
all 901 +57.9% +42.9% 29% 22% +74.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +42.9% 22% +74.1%
10% +29.2% 21% +57.4%
15% +16.7% 20% +42.2%
20% +5.3% 20% +28.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +77% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +58% · $-wt +153% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +117% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$3 · ×11.92 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.9 per $1 lost it wins $4.9
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

262d coverage
Net worth$84
Realized+$8,144
Unrealized+$27
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses261 / 640
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions10
Markets (closed)901 / 911
History coverage262d ⚠
Avg bet$6
Trades / day9.5
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 901 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 9+ matches go to extra time during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 40¢ 50¢ $20 $25 +$5 (+25%)
Will Lionel Messi record the most goal contributions at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 31¢ 37¢ $16 $18 +$3 (+19%)
Will Argentina score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 31¢ $10 $16 +$6 (+59%)
Will Canada win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 4¢ $1 $10 +$9 (+868%)
Will 6+ matches go to extra time during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 12¢ 16¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+33%)
Will Mexico record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 6¢ $1 $3 +$1 (+99%)
Will Ghana record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+107%)
Will 1+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 0¢ 1¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+26%)
Will Mexico score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Will a player representing Ecuador be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 109 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup? Jun 28 $19 +$6 +31%
Will Curaçao be the furthest advancing CONCACAF nation at the World Cu Jun 28 $30 −$2 -6%
Will Congo DR be the worst-placed African nation in the 2026 FIFA Worl Jun 28 $7 +$4 +59%
Will there be 5+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $59 +$129 +220%
Will Belgium be the worst-placed European nation in the 2026 FIFA Worl Jun 27 $3 −$2 -78%
Will Uruguay go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Jun 27 $0 $0 -100%
Will Cape Verde go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Jun 26 $0 +$4 +28567%
Will Türkiye (22) be the highest-ranked team eliminated in the 2026 FI Jun 26 $11 +$1 +13%
Will Uruguay (16) be the highest-ranked team eliminated in the 2026 FI Jun 26 $0 +$9 +2485%
Will Senegal (15) be the highest-ranked team eliminated in the 2026 FI Jun 26 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Cape Verde be the worst-placed African nation in the 2026 FIFA Wo Jun 26 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Czechia be the worst-placed European nation in the 2026 FIFA Worl Jun 26 $20 +$83 +403%
Will Türkiye be the worst-placed European nation in the 2026 FIFA Worl Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Australia be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 202 Jun 26 $11 −$1 -9%
Will Haiti be the worst-placed Central American nation in the 2026 FIF Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
World Cup: Any Team to Score 10+ Goals in the Group Stage? Jun 25 $11 −$5 -47%
Will Zelenskyy post 20-39 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Will USD be between 1.7M and 1.8M Iranian rials on June 30? Jun 24 $19 +$2 +10%
Will White House post 140-159 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -95%
Will USD be between 1.5M and 1.6M Iranian rials on June 30? Jun 23 $26 +$7 +28%
Will USD be between 1.6M and 1.7M Iranian rials on June 30? Jun 23 $17 +$32 +192%
Will USD be less than 1.5M Iranian rials on June 30? Jun 23 $25 −$14 -54%
Will Ghana be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2026 Wo Jun 23 $21 −$1 -4%
Will IR Iran (20) be the highest-ranked team eliminated in the 2026 FI Jun 23 $11 +$8 +76%
Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -98%
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 23 $7 −$7 -92%
Will White House post 160-179 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 22 $3 +$11 +436%
Will White House post 180-199 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 21 $12 +$8 +64%
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 21 $19 −$4 -19%
Will Mikel Oyarzabal score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $9 −$2 -22%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 56.5 and 57 million views in wee Jun 20 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $2 −$1 -32%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 51 million views on day 4 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 51 and 52 million views on day 4 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Zelenskyy post 40-59 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will there be 10+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $63 +$52 +82%
Will Arda Güler score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $9 +$6 +61%
Will Leandro Trossard score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $8 +$2 +23%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 47 and 48 million views on day 3 Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Will White House post 180-199 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Will White House post 160-179 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June Jun 15 $2 +$4 +222%
Will Zelenskyy post 20-39 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 37 and 39 million views on day 2 Jun 15 $2 $0 -32%
Will White House post 180-199 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week Jun 14 $3 −$2 -44%
Will Paraguay concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Jun 14 $0 $0 +191%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 50 million views on week Jun 14 $1 $0 -49%
Will Zelenskyy post 0-19 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup? SELL Yes 50¢ $25 1h
Will Canada win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 22h
Will Argentina score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 22h
Will 1+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA Wo BUY No 0¢ $1 23h
Will Congo DR be the worst-placed African nation in the 2026 FIFA Worl SELL Yes 21¢ $10 24h
Will there be 5+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 36¢ $1 25h
Will Congo DR be the worst-placed African nation in the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY Yes 13¢ $7 26h
Will Japan be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup? BUY Yes 37¢ $19 31h
Will 6+ matches go to extra time during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 12¢ $6 33h
Will Ghana record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 33h
Will there be 5+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 24¢ $23 37h
Will there be 5+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 4¢ $4 39h
Will Belgium be the worst-placed European nation in the 2026 FIFA Worl SELL Yes 0¢ $1 45h
Will Uruguay go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 2d
Will Cape Verde go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? SELL Yes 58¢ $4 2d
Will Cape Verde go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will Türkiye (22) be the highest-ranked team eliminated in the 2026 FI SELL Yes 10¢ $5 2d
Will Uruguay (16) be the highest-ranked team eliminated in the 2026 FI SELL Yes 50¢ $10 2d
Will Senegal (15) be the highest-ranked team eliminated in the 2026 FI BUY Yes 10¢ $2 2d
Will Senegal (15) be the highest-ranked team eliminated in the 2026 FI BUY Yes 8¢ $2 2d
Will Cape Verde be the worst-placed African nation in the 2026 FIFA Wo BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Will Cape Verde be the worst-placed African nation in the 2026 FIFA Wo BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Will Türkiye (22) be the highest-ranked team eliminated in the 2026 FI SELL Yes 10¢ $8 2d
Will there be 5+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 56¢ $55 2d
Will there be 5+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 57¢ $84 2d
Will Mexico record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 2d
Will Belgium be the worst-placed European nation in the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY Yes 0¢ $1 2d
Will Czechia be the worst-placed European nation in the 2026 FIFA Worl SELL Yes 94¢ $103 2d
Will Türkiye be the worst-placed European nation in the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY Yes 5¢ $1 2d
Will Belgium be the worst-placed European nation in the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $84.14 · official $84.14 (match) · 3500 history records