Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T21:10:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
22 0x22f6…830d world 47 markets active 9d ago coverage 480d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$26 (+3%) realized +$26 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate51%24W / 23L
Drawdown47%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% +$2
other 17% +$21
sports 16% +$12
politics 12% $0
crypto 6% −$3
economics 5% $0
weather 3% −$6
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 14 +2.3% -7.4% 64% 7% -9.0%
≤90d 14 +2.3% -7.4% 64% 7% -9.0%
all 47 +0.5% -9.0% 51% 13% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 13% -7.2%
10% -17.8% 9% -16.1%
15% -25.7% 9% -24.2%
20% -33.0% 6% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.99 per $1 lost it wins $1.99
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

480d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$26
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses24 / 23
Open positions0
Markets (closed)47 / 47
History coverage480d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown47%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 47 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 16 $44 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $18 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $45 −$1 -2%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $84 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $2 $0 +2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $4 +$1 +21%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $3 $0 +2%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $15 $0 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $39 +$1 +2%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Jun 10 $43 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 10 $33 +$1 +3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $42 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $38 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 07 $5 $0 +2%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Dec 09 $1 $0 +5%
Will Lee Jae-myung win by between 20-23%? Jun 08 $2 $0 +3%
Will Solana reach $300 in May? Jun 02 $1 $0 +2%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $2 $0 +3%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 19 $2 $0 +1%
Will Nottingham Forest win the 2024-25 FA Cup? Apr 28 $76 +$6 +8%
Will CDU/CSU and AfD form the next German Government? Mar 26 $1 +$1 +64%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $87000 on Mar 21? Mar 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Will 'Snow White' gross between 34-39m on opening weekend? Mar 21 $44 −$2 -4%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2025 meeting? Mar 21 $48 $0 +1%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Mar 18 $46 +$1 +2%
Will Trump's approval rating be between 47.0% and 47.4% on March 14? Mar 13 $47 $0 +0%
Will egg prices be between $5.75 and $6.00 in February? Mar 13 $30 +$16 +54%
FDP wins 5% or more of vote in German election? Mar 11 $1 −$1 -50%
Will Brian Armstrong attend the March 7 Crypto Summit? Mar 11 $31 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 40-41°F on March 3? Mar 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Blues vs. Kings Mar 07 $13 +$18 +144%
Will Fenerbahce win on 2025-03-06? Mar 05 $12 $0 +2%
Clippers vs. Suns Mar 03 $12 $0 +0%
Eastern Kentucky vs. Jacksonville Mar 03 $17 $0 +0%
Predators vs. Bruins Mar 03 $17 $0 +0%
UL Monroe vs. Louisiana Mar 03 $5 $0 +0%
Villanova vs. Georgetown Mar 03 $16 $0 +0%
San José State vs. Colorado State Mar 03 $14 −$13 -88%
Will Trump say 'DOGE' or 'Department of Government Efficiency' during Mar 03 $30 $0 -0%
Toledo vs. Kent State Mar 03 $9 +$3 +37%
Louisville vs. Virginia Tech Mar 03 $15 +$3 +20%
Will Montoya stay with his girlfriend? Feb 25 $10 $0 +0%
Providence vs. Marquette Feb 25 $13 $0 +0%
Belmont vs. Missouri State Feb 25 $9 $0 +0%
New Mexico vs. San Diego State Feb 25 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 47-48°F on February Feb 25 $22 −$2 -9%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2025? Feb 24 $26 −$1 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 61¢ $44 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 61¢ $44 8d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $16 9d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 9d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $18 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $44 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 85¢ $45 10d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $44 10d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $44 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 11d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes $2 11d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes $1 11d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes $2 11d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes $4 11d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $40 11d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $40 11d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $3 11d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $0 11d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $3 11d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 36¢ $16 12d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 35¢ $3 12d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 35¢ $13 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 55¢ $40 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 54¢ $39 12d
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $20 13d
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $24 13d
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $43 14d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL No 37¢ $27 14d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL No 37¢ $7 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 151 history records