Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:22:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
22 0x22f3…6c94 sports 349 markets active 0h ago coverage 120d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,966 (-8%) realized −$1,961 · open −$5
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate47%162W / 186L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$74per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Fees−$290est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$2
14 days−$179
30 days−$236
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$2,463
other 3% +$9
crypto 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-17.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -16.8% -24.8% 50% 44% -9.4%
≤30d 107 -10.5% -19.0% 50% 44% -12.0%
≤90d 272 -6.6% -15.5% 47% 42% -11.0%
all 348 -8.3% -17.0% 47% 41% -15.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.0% 41% -15.8%
10% -24.9% 34% -23.9%
15% -32.2% 28% -31.2%
20% -38.8% 22% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$40 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,961
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses162 / 186
Est. fees paid−$290
Open positions1
Markets (closed)348 / 349
History coverage120d
Avg bet$74
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 348 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Nigeria vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi Nigeria $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 84 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 17 $101 +$23 +23%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka Jun 16 $30 −$30 -99%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Nigeria Jun 15 $20 +$14 +67%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 15 $81 −$6 -7%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan Jun 14 $20 −$19 -90%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands Jun 14 $20 +$8 +41%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $169 +$32 +19%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 14 $81 +$18 +22%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand Jun 13 $61 +$60 +98%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 13 $152 +$20 +13%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs South Africa Jun 13 $40 −$37 -92%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland Jun 13 $30 −$30 -99%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Sri Lanka Jun 12 $51 −$35 -68%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 12 $100 −$4 -4%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 11 $100 +$7 +7%
T20 Blast: Northamptonshire vs Worcestershire Jun 09 $9 −$9 -98%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 09 $51 −$50 -98%
T20 Blast: Somerset vs Warwickshire Jun 07 $36 −$10 -28%
T20 Blast: Lancashire vs Glamorgan Jun 07 $9 +$10 +109%
T20 Blast: Sussex vs Kent Jun 07 $30 +$36 +118%
T20 Blast: Middlesex vs Essex Jun 07 $25 −$14 -56%
T20 Blast: Nottinghamshire vs Derbyshire Jun 07 $31 −$28 -93%
T20 Blast: Gloucestershire vs Worcestershire Jun 07 $30 −$18 -59%
T20 Blast: Leicestershire vs Yorkshire Jun 07 $30 −$30 -99%
Will the match end in a draw? Jun 07 $21 −$18 -86%
ODI Series West Indies vs Sri Lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 07 $20 +$1 +3%
ICC Cricket World Cup League Two: Canada vs USA Jun 07 $30 +$11 +36%
T20 Blast: Durham vs Northamptonshire Jun 06 $40 −$32 -78%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Nepal vs Hong Kong, China Jun 06 $18 +$13 +72%
T20 Blast: Sussex vs Leicestershire Jun 05 $12 +$7 +57%
T20 Blast: Surrey vs Hampshire Jun 05 $11 +$2 +22%
T20 Blast: Worcestershire vs Glamorgan Jun 05 $40 −$39 -98%
Will New Zealand win? Jun 05 $102 −$28 -28%
T20 Asian Games, Qualifier: Oman vs Hong Kong, China Jun 05 $39 −$12 -31%
T20 Asian Games, Qualifier: Bahrain vs Singapore Jun 05 $35 −$26 -73%
T20 Blast: Somerset vs Glamorgan Jun 04 $67 −$26 -38%
Will England win? Jun 04 $51 +$53 +104%
ODI Series West Indies vs Sri Lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 04 $30 +$31 +101%
T20 Blast: Surrey vs Middlesex Jun 03 $31 −$28 -92%
T20 Ireland Tri-Series, Women: Pakistan vs West Indies Jun 03 $71 +$10 +13%
T20 Scotland Tri-Series, Women: Scotland vs Netherlands Jun 03 $32 +$14 +42%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Bhutan vs Hong Kong, China Jun 03 $10 −$10 -98%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: China vs Oman Jun 03 $20 −$11 -52%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Malaysia vs Kuwait Jun 03 $41 +$24 +59%
T20 Scotland Tri-Series, Women: Scotland vs Bangladesh Jun 02 $51 +$50 +99%
T20 Series England vs. India, Women: England vs India Jun 02 $51 −$50 -98%
T20 Ireland Tri-Series, Women: Ireland vs West Indies Jun 01 $212 +$3 +1%
T20 Asian Games, Qualifier: Hong Kong, China vs Bahrain Jun 01 $126 −$1 -1%
T20 Asian Games, Qualifier: Oman vs Singapore Jun 01 $10 +$3 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Nigeria vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi SELL Zimbabwe High Performance Xi 100¢ $30 26m
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan SELL India 99¢ $124 1h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Nigeria vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi BUY Nigeria $5 2h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Nigeria vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi BUY Zimbabwe High Performance Xi 66¢ $20 3h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 80¢ $101 4h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY New Zealand 76¢ $30 22h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi SELL Zimbabwe High Performance Xi $0 2d
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Nigeria BUY Brazil 59¢ $20 2d
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi BUY Zimbabwe High Performance Xi 54¢ $20 2d
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka SELL West Indies 99¢ $23 2d
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka SELL West Indies 97¢ $36 2d
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka BUY West Indies 50¢ $30 2d
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka SELL West Indies 22¢ $17 2d
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka BUY West Indies 56¢ $20 2d
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka BUY West Indies 73¢ $30 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan SELL Pakistan $2 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan BUY Pakistan 20¢ $20 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands SELL Bangladesh 100¢ $29 2d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Australia 98¢ $106 2d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 81¢ $50 3d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 65¢ $30 3d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Bangladesh 34¢ $7 3d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 36¢ $7 3d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Australia 40¢ $49 3d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Bangladesh 33¢ $40 3d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands BUY Bangladesh 70¢ $20 3d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 32¢ $41 3d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 33¢ $41 3d
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka SELL Sri Lanka 97¢ $97 3d
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka SELL West Indies $2 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.04 · official $0.04 (match) · 1193 history records