Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:09:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
22 0x22ed…ec0d crypto 1565 markets active 0h ago coverage 54d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$17 (-1%) realized −$15 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate63%983W / 580L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day31.9pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$28
7 days−$8
14 days−$22
30 days−$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$79
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 266 +9.8% -0.7% 23% 23% -12.2%
≤30d 751 +0.1% -9.4% 49% 44% -13.6%
≤90d 1563 -1.4% -10.8% 63% 48% -12.1%
all 1563 -1.4% -10.8% 63% 48% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.8% 48% -12.1%
10% ← realistic here -19.4% 31% -20.5%
15% -27.1% 19% -28.2%
20% -34.3% 12% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$15
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses983 / 580
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1563 / 1565
History coverage54d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day31.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1563 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Down 8¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Down 19¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$8 +394%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$2 +115%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$4 +395%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$4 +351%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$3 +313%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$7 +685%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$7 +625%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$24 +2243%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.01 · official $0.03 (match) · 3234 history records