Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T04:07:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
22 0x22ed…002b sports 303 markets active 1h ago coverage 312d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edgeP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,616 (+0%) realized +$6,808 · open −$5,192
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate39%117W / 185L
Whale WR45%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,607per market
Trades / day6.8pace
Fees−$1,599est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$316now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 312d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% −$8,080
other 43% +$3,742
world 0% +$273
crypto 0% +$888
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +23.5% +11.8% 50% 50% -11.5%
≤30d 45 -4.3% -13.4% 38% 38% -10.1%
≤90d 81 -12.9% -21.2% 35% 33% -4.1%
all 302 -7.9% -16.6% 39% 37% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.6% 37% -9.1%
10% -24.6% 36% -17.8%
15% -31.9% 34% -25.8%
20% -38.6% 30% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 45% (≥$1,960) neutral
Persistence
early +27% → late -43% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2,021 vs −$1,267 · ×1.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

312d coverage
Net worth$316
Realized+$6,808
Unrealized−$5,192
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses117 / 185
Whale WR (big bets)45%
Est. fees paid−$1,599
Open positions1
Markets (closed)302 / 303
History coverage312d
Avg bet$1,607
Trades / day6.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 302 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? No 27¢ 2¢ $5,508 $316 −$5,192 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Colombia leading at halftime? Jun 18 $102 +$68 +67%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $10,405 −$5 -0%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $9,008 −$9,008 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $6,841 +$5,999 +88%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $3,209 −$3,209 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $7,037 +$13,468 +191%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $3,683 +$2,257 +61%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $8,687 +$9,043 +104%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,279 +$1,181 +92%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 14 $7,266 −$7,266 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10,211 −$10,210 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $152 +$647 +426%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $4,290 −$4,259 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $20 +$16 +79%
Will Ukraine win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $57 −$56 -97%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $1,022 −$1,001 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $464 −$24 -5%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $4,752 +$8,448 +178%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $2,403 −$2,376 -99%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $7,587 +$3,698 +49%
UFC Fight Night: Rodrigo Vera vs. Zhu Kangjie (Featherweight, Prelims) May 30 $5,029 +$5,598 +111%
Will Nice win on 2026-05-29? May 28 $1,263 −$63 -5%
Will FC Augsburg win on 2026-05-09? May 28 $7,492 −$5,505 -74%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-17? May 28 $5,106 −$5,106 -100%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 28 $4,936 −$4,936 -100%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-05-16? May 28 $2,196 −$2,196 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-21? May 28 $3,314 −$3,314 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-17? May 28 $6,932 −$6,932 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-09? May 28 $4,914 −$4,914 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? May 28 $5,532 −$5,532 -100%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 28 $1,354 −$1,354 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-17? May 28 $6,055 −$6,055 -100%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 28.5 May 28 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-05-17? May 28 $6,510 +$6,995 +107%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-24? May 28 $4,039 +$7,805 +193%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 28 $240 −$240 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 28 $1,471 −$1,471 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Alice Ardelean vs. Polyana Viana (Women's Strawweight May 28 $2,808 −$2,808 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? May 28 $385 −$385 -100%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $6,682 +$5,526 +83%
Will Girona FC win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $5,357 +$6,537 +122%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $5,016 +$8,184 +163%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers May 19 $3,566 −$159 -4%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $1,080 +$1,920 +178%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 18 $5,846 +$9,954 +170%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $3,037 +$7,797 +257%
UFC Fight Night: Tuco Tokkos vs. Ivan Erslan (Light Heavyweight, Preli May 17 $4,319 +$1,996 +46%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $6,451 +$6,989 +108%
Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $3,540 +$5,311 +150%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Colombia leading at halftime? SELL Yes 92¢ $170 1h
Colombia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 55¢ $86 2h
Colombia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 55¢ $14 2h
Colombia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 55¢ $1 2h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 27¢ $5,508 2h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score SELL No 100¢ $20,779 3h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 5¢ $5 3h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY No 50¢ $1,034 5h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY No 50¢ $2,000 5h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY No 50¢ $5 5h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY No 50¢ $97 5h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY No 50¢ $6 5h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY No 50¢ $1,001 5h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY No 50¢ $599 5h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY No 50¢ $5 5h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY No 50¢ $25 5h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY No 50¢ $1 5h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY No 50¢ $4 5h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY No 50¢ $1 5h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY No 50¢ $10 5h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY No 50¢ $5,276 5h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY No 50¢ $97 5h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY No 50¢ $7 5h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY No 50¢ $78 5h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY No 50¢ $15 5h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY No 50¢ $8 5h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY No 50¢ $5 5h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY No 50¢ $126 5h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 41¢ $53 8h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 41¢ $3,243 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $316.20 · official $316.20 (match) · 2384 history records